The closing of the national accounts for the third quarter of 2022 by the High Commission for Planning shows a marked slowdown in the growth of the national economy, standing at 1.6% instead of 8.7% a year earlier.
Driven by domestic demand, this growth was achieved in a context of high inflation and an aggravation of the national economy’s financing requirement.e.
Sharp slowdown in economic growth
The added value of the primary sector in volume, seasonally adjusted, contracted by 16.2% in the third quarter of 2022, following recording an increase of 14.3% in the same quarter of the previous year. This is explained by the decrease in the added value of agriculture by 15.1% instead of an increase of 16.6% and fishing by 33.2% instead of a drop of 20.1%.
On his side, the added value of the secondary sector experienced a sharp slowdown in its growth rate, dropping from 5.1% during the same quarter of the previous year to 0.4%. This was the result of lower added values:
- the extraction industry by 10.4% instead of an increase of 2.8%;
- construction and public works by 2.5% instead of an increase of 14.2%;
- of “Electricity, gas, water, sanitation and waste” by 0.1% instead of an increase of 3.8%;
and the increase in that of manufacturing industries by 2.8% instead of 2.5%.
The added value of the tertiary sector, otherwise, recorded a slowdown in its growth rate from 8.9% in the same quarter of the previous year to 5.7%. It was marked by the slowdown in the activities of:
- Accommodation and catering at 50.1% instead of 72.5%;
- Transport and storage at 5.5% instead of 33.8%;
- Education, health and social action services at 3.1% instead of 3.2%;
- Research and development and business services at 2.6% instead of 10.7%;
- Vehicle trade and repair at 1.4% instead of 7.6%;
- Real estate services at 1% instead of 3.2%.
And the increase in those of:
- Financial services and insurance, with 6.5% instead of 5.5%;
- Services provided by general public administration and social security, with 4.5% instead of 4%;
- Information and communication, with 1.4% instead of 0.4%.
In total, the value added of non-agricultural activities thus experienced a sharp slowdown to 3.6% during the third quarter of 2022 compared to 7.4% in the same quarter of the previous year.
Under these conditions, and taking into account the 3.7% increase in taxes on income net of subsidies, the economic growth rate declined from 8.7% in the same quarter of the previous year to 1.6%.
Inflation rate on the rise
At current prices, GDP rose by 7.6% instead of 13.8% a year earlier, thus generating an increase in the general price level of 6% instead of 5.1%.
Domestic demand down sharply
Domestic demand posted a marked slowdown, dropping from 8% during the same quarter of the previous year to 4.3%, thus contributing 4.7 points to national economic growth instead of 8.7 points.
This is how household final consumption expenditure experienced a slowdown in its growth rate from 6.4% in the third quarter of 2021 to 2.4% with a contribution to growth of 1.4 points instead of by 3.8 points.
For its part, the final consumption of general government posted an increase of 4.1% instead of 5.7%, with a contribution to growth of 0.8 point instead of 1.1 point.
Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) recorded a marked slowdown to 2.7% instead of 11.9% a year earlier, with a contribution to growth of 0.7 points instead of 3 points, during the same quarter of the previous year.
Negative contribution of foreign trade
In terms of foreign trade in goods and services in volume, both exports and imports recorded strong increases during the third quarter of 2022. Thus imports of goods and services increased by 25.8%. instead of 15.1%, with a negative contribution to growth of 11.1 points instead of a negative contribution of 5.7 points during the same period last year.
From for their part, exports increased by 23.2% instead of 19.5%, with a contribution to growth of 7.9 points instead of 5.7 points a year earlier.
In this context, foreign trade in goods and services made a negative contribution to growth, standing at 3.1 points instead of zero contribution during the third quarter of 2021.
Worsening of the need for financing
With a slowdown to 7.6% of GDP at current prices instead of 13.8% a year earlier and the 17.2% increase in net income received from the rest of the world, the growth of gross national disposable income experienced a slowdown from 14% in the same period last year to 8.2% in the third quarter of 2022.
Given the 9.5% increase in national final consumption in value instead of 9.3% recorded last year, national savings stood at 27.9% of GDP instead of 28 .8%.
Gross investment (GFCF, change in stocks and net acquisition of valuables) represented 34.8% of GDP instead of 30.7% during the same quarter of the previous year. The financing requirement of the national economy thus worsened compared to the third quarter of 2021, rising from 1.9% of GDP to 6.8%.
