On the fifth floor of the Ministry of Economy, the calm is absolute. It does not matter that outside, in the city of Buenos Aires, the Argentine thermometer of economic, political and institutional well-being -the dollar- rises.
“Whenever there is something, we solve it”, search for the Minister of Economy, Sergio Massa. “Reservations are resolved; inflation is resolved; now the dollar It accommodates in January and February ”, they predict confidently and despite the fact that there are still doubts that those macroeconomic problems have already been effectively solved.
The blue dollar rose $35 in seven days ($356), and together with the financiers it takes flight in search of the most expensive official brand: the Qatar dollar ($366). Everything happens when there are more pesos on the market, and while -despite the greater seasonal demand for banknotes- many continue to find in the dollarization of their wallets the best option for vacations and savings.
The American currency breaks records, but nominal ones. The truth is that, adjusted for inflation, it is cheap. What is devalued is the purchasing power of citizens in pesos due to inflation that is scratching three digits. In the year, the employed lose 8.5% of their income, according to official data from INDEC. It is that and not a court ruling is what marginalizes, for now, Cristina Kirchner from the 2023 race.
Massa’s economic team finds three reasons for the year-end jump in “free” dollars. In principle, the collection of the Christmas bonus. Those extra pesos, in the current uncertain context of Argentina, fly towards a hard currency, that is, the dollar. The demand grows. A second reason involves the offer: according to what they told LA NACION official sources, there are “wholesale caves” that went into vacation mode in the last week of the year. The third issue would be, in part, the dismantling of small Argentine deposits in the US, due to the entry into force on January 1 of the automatic exchange of financial information with that country and the possibility that a money laundering process might be opened in Argentina. Economy did not confirm if this project had entered Congress this Tuesday, as promised.
In addition, the lower offer of tourist dollars in the parallel market would have an impact due to the greater use of credit cards at the value of the MEP, a possibility that began to work reliably very recently.
In the scenario of exchange uncertainty, the Palacio de Hacienda focused on highlighting -also the Central Bank- the purchase yesterday by the monetary entity led by Miguel Pesce of US$147 million in the official market in a round in which soybean exporters liquidated US$222 million. This is the last week of that special exchange rate and although the weather is improving, the drought has already done its damage. It will be necessary to find a new bridge until the next liquidation – the holding of soybeans has already been brought forward – in a summer that predicts more import stocks.
Other old tenants of the Ministry of Economy are not as confident as the current ones. in strict off the record They did point out that “free” exchange rates were outdated in the face of rising inflation and that they move mainly with a motor: the huge monetary issue from December, which already exceeds $700,000 million.
This occurs in the midst of high inflation close to 100% that makes the Argentine peso a former currency that is impossible to demand for savings and that no longer serves as a reference for many prices in the economy. For now, it continues to be the transactional currency, despite the fact that the old possibility of a common currency with Brazil, for example, It was explored by Massa in recent days in a meeting with Geraldo Alckmin (vice-elect) and Fernando Haddad (designated Finance Minister).
“It’s a combination of things,” says a former Minister of Economy when THE NATION He asks why the blue dollar is rising. “Basically, the amount of money is growing at a very large rate. The last debt tender was almost all financed with disarmament passes and leliqs, because there are no marginal buyers for Treasury debt. The idea that the monetary financing goals are being met is valid only if one looks at the transitory advances from the Central Bank to the Treasury. For example, by purchase of SDRs [derechos especiales de Giro del FMI] it is a source of emission, but there is more”, estimates the economist.
“The amount of money rises at a great rate. In addition, this week’s political noise was added. But more than anything it’s the excess supply of money.” completed the former head of the Treasury.
as pointed out THE NATION, The direct or indirect monetary issue of December to assist the treasury is around $710,000 million, if the printing of banknotes made for the purchase of DEGs is considered, the one caused by the drop in leliqs and passes to subscribe bonds (December 15 and 16). and that estimated for the direct acquisition of bonds by the Central Bank. To this must be added, in addition, the purchase of foreign currency within the framework of the second edition of the soybean dollar.
“They’re a little behind,” affirmed a former Finance Secretary, who explained that the dollar has been at the same level since August and monthly inflation is above 6%. He does the following math: 6% of $300 is $18 per month that the dollar should have gone up just to keep up with the other prices in the economy, but it didn’t. “A dollar of $370 would not be crazy”, said.
However, the former official pointed out that there is nothing to be scared of. “Sergio [Massa] He’s got it handled well.” he estimated with a hint of irony. He speaks particularly of the controls that the Government exercises on imports, since dollars are not lost due to their price [sí la capacidad de compra]but when sales are authorized [por cantidad]. The soybean dollar, he believes, gives Massa a buffer of reserves that allows him to better handle the current situation.
“There is a phenomenal surplus of weights and he has everything under control. we will see the roll over of maturities in January [de la deuda en pesos]”, warned, however, the expert focusing on the debt in pesos in 2023.
“Why does the blue go up?” asked him THE NATION to another former Minister of Economy, who also preferred anonymity in the face of exchange rate instability. “Perhaps because the Government tries not to respect a ruling of the Court?”, replied the former official, who wished, perhaps somewhat hastily, a Happy New Year for the coming weekend.
