Spain’s National Statistics Institute (INE) revised its growth estimate down to 0.1% yesterday
for the third quarter, confirming the sharp slowdown in activity in Spain in the face of the deterioration in the global economy.
This figure, in line with the initial forecast of the Bank of Spain, is 0.1 point lower than that published during an initial estimate at the end of October (0.2%). It confirms the soft spot in the Spanish economy following the good results in the spring.
According to the public body, the Spanish gross domestic product (GDP) indeed climbed by 2% between April and June, thanks to a hitherto solid consumption. This figure is 0.5 points higher than the latest INE estimate.
The heavy drop observed between the second and third quarters is explained, according to the public body, by the decline in business investment (-0.1%), but also by sluggish consumption (+0, 1% following +1.7% in spring).
This dynamic comes at a time when European countries are facing economic difficulties, linked in particular to the conflict in Ukraine, which has led to a surge in inflation, once morest the backdrop of the energy crisis.
According to the Bank of Spain, this bad patch should continue during the fourth quarter of 2022 and the first quarter of 2023, even if Spain should escape a technical recession (decline in activity for two quarters in a row).
According to Madrid, the Spanish GDP should climb by 4.4% this year, thanks to the good results of the beginning of the year 2022. Growth should however fall to 2.1% next year, instead of 3.5%. originally planned.
The government’s forecast for 2023 is considered optimistic by most economic bodies, such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Bank of Spain, which both forecast growth of 1.3% next year. .
APS