Without Santa knowing, on Sunday, Alberto Fernández will leave a gift on the Christmas tree for all Argentines. But the President prefers that this present is never opened. May he be forever wrapped up and lost in ostracism. The first president, on the other hand, proposes that citizens be distracted by fireworks.
The World Cup in Qatar ended. There are no longer enemies as fearsome as Kiki Mbappé. Now, the President’s team is governors and the chosen opponent, the Supreme Court. Despite the institutional degradation due to non-compliance with a ruling by the Justice, which will earn Fernández several criminal complaints, it is likely that the ordinary Argentine will move more because the pesos are not enough for the capers of the vitel toné. Sweet bread or cider are privileges.
In the midst of the smoke of the World Cup celebrations and the loud judicial disobedience of the President, the gift that Fernández leaves to her voters is the one that infuriates Cristina Kirchner the most. This dramatic present affirms that, in the third quarter, the employed – salaried and self-employed – saw 8.5% of their income liquefied due to the very high inflation compared to a year ago. In the last five years, they lost a quarter (25.07%) of them. These are data from the Indec Income Distribution report known in the last few hours and processed by the private consulting firm ExQuanti.
“There is a structural adjustment installed over time in Argentina,” explained one of the authors of the calculation and a specialist in social statistics. “What is unprecedented in the country is that a Peronist government has not achieved a recovery following the blow,” he claimed. It is the same thing that the vice should think regarding the management of her chosen pupil via Twitter.
These are alarming numbers for the start of the 2023 electoral campaign. On Thursday, March 30 of the year that will begin in a few days, the poverty number for the second semester of 2022 will be known. “Bad data on the distribution of total family income (ITF) for the third quarter of 2022 for poverty. The average ITF grows 60.6% compared to the same quarter of 2021. The average ITF of the 4 lowest deciles grows 68.2%, while the average CBT-GBA [canasta básica total, que marca la línea de la pobreza] for the same period it grew 74%”, advanced the expert from the Torcuato Di Tella University (UTDT) Martín Rozada.
It is no coincidence that, in the last few hours, the Polo Obrero put together a soccer hash for “a Christmas without hunger” in front of the Ministry of Social Development led by Victoria Tolosa Paz. It was not so much attention to see Eduardo Belliboni with the Argentine jacket, but another player -quite skilled on the hot asphalt- with an International Monetary Fund (IMF) shirt and a Cristina Kirchner mask. The leftist piqueteros -others, like Evita, are part of the Government- denounce the casualties of the social plans. They also say that Alberto’s bonuses are not enough.
The IMF congratulated Serio Massa – endorsed by the vice president in the Ministry of Economy – due to the “strong spending controls” that he promoted since mid-year. Not only that. He welcomed the cancellation of 20,000 “ineligible” Potenciar Trabajo plans and estimated that he expects the cuts to continue in 2023. He congratulated that the 2023 budget entails a reduction in subsidies (0.6% of GDP) and a more important “rationalization” of social spending (0.8% of the product). Those numbers were published in the staff report following the agency’s board of directors approved the goals for the third quarter on Thursday night. In addition, in a direct crush on Kirchnerism, he asks to avoid new retirement moratoriums.
It is also likely that reforms will be prepared to neutralize the “generosity” of some special pension systems for different occupations. In the Fund they know that this is only plausible for following the elections.
“Broad political support for the program remains essential, especially as elections approach,” asked the Fund and warned politics: “Social discontent might escalate further, weakening political support for the program and causing deviations from policies and interventionist measures, especially before elections.” It is the contradiction in which Massa, Cristina and also Fernández find themselves.
“To help strengthen the credibility of disinflation policies and targets, the primary deficit will be limited to 0.8% of GDP during the first half of next year,” the Fund announced in 2023. Next year, the red with the IMF should be 1.9% of GDP compared to 2.5% in 2022. 2023 requires a cut in the primary red of 0.6% of GDP.
For Equilibra, the reduction in spending might be interrupted close to the elections, withholdings would be reduced by the resources advanced by the soybean dollar 2, it will not be possible to count income for 0.3% of GDP and the Supreme Court ruled in favor of the return to CABA of a greater portion of the tax co-participation. “This year the fiscal goal would be met, but it will be difficult to achieve it in 2023,” warned in the consultancy run by Martín Rapetti and Diego Bossio.
The Court ruling opened a novel of entanglements regarding who should press the red button to update the transfer of funds destined for Horacio Rodríguez Larreta. It is a device that a presidential candidate like Sergio Massa seeks to have far away. In the Ministry of the Interior, headed by Eduardo De Pedro (a man from La Cámpora), they pointed directly to the Ministry of Economy. In the Treasury they did not grab the hot potato: “The law distributes, the AFIP collects, and transfers the Banco Nación. The representation in the trial is held by the Attorney General”. Return the ball to Christianity. At Banco Nación, run by Silvina Batakis (Massa’s predecessor), they await an order from the Minister of Economy, who went to Sao Paulo to see Fernando Haddad and Geraldo Alckmin on a campaign trip for someone who lives denying his candidacy. presidential. Meanwhile, the ruling has already been breached, as confirmed in the city. The money is not there and the scandal will continue.
Perhaps the political noise will last much longer. For example, the constitutionalist Andrés Gil Domínguez advises everyone to be patient. “An example to compare. In the case ‘San Luis once morest the National State’ (CSJ 191/2015) a substantive ruling was issued in favor of San Luis in competition originating from the CSJ regarding co-participating funds on November 24, 2015. Only on February 19, 2019, the CSJ approved the final liquidation carried out. On February 25, 2021, the CSJ approved the payment agreement entered into between both parties on December 30, 2020. With a final sentence, it took more than five years until the State paid”, wrote on his Twitter account.
The novels of entanglements are functional before the discontent of the street, although not always. Carlos Rosenkrantz, Juan Carlos Maqueda, Horacio Rosatti, and Ricardo Lorenzetti are likely to attract less attention in the medium term than Lionel Messi, Julián Álvarez, “El Dibu” Martínez or Lionel Scaloni. Christmas Eve is coming up. Christmas is coming. And all Argentines will receive a more scrawny little tree and a less generous Santa Claus as a gift from Alberto.
