The Russian President, Vladimir Putin, has canceled the main public events scheduled for the end of the year. No state of the nation address, no annual press conference, no Christmas ceremony at the Kremlin. Reversals on the battlefield have made him a messenger of bad news.
As they acknowledge in the Kremlin, “Russia is a besieged fortress and Putin is his commandere”, but the reality is that events on the Ukrainian front are beginning to influence the political agenda dangerously.
Putinwhich did not suspend any of these events during the coronavirus pandemic, only presides over events where everything is controlled down to the last detail, such as a medal ceremony in the Kremlin or a session of the Council of State, a purely consultative Soviet.
Fear of a Ukrainian attack
since 2012 Putin he faces questions from the press every year for regarding four hours. He has done so without fail since he returned to the Kremlin following a four-year hiatus as prime minister (2008-12). This year he has decided to break with tradition.
With the conflict of Ukraine under way, surely some of the questions from foreign correspondents would allude to the complicated situation at the front and to the humiliating Russian withdrawals of the Kharkov and Jershon regions.
There would also be uncomfortable questions on the menu in the local press regarding the unpopular mobilization, the problems with supplies and the participation of recruits in the fighting. Putin he had much more to lose than gain.
I would have to explain the inexplicable, that is to say, that instead of the overwhelming victory and the Ukrainian denazification, at this point in the conflict the enemy has recovered the initiative and reconquered part of the territories annexed on paper by Moscow.
According to the “Moscow Times” newspaper, which cites sources in the Presidency and the Government, the fear of a Ukrainian sabotage operation similar to those perpetrated in Crimea and at airfields in Russian territory definitely tipped the balance for the cancellation of any act that might undermine the popularity of the head of state.
Putin would have made the decision personally, since the security forces cannot guarantee that such a scenario will not be repeated.
violate the constitution
The Russian Constitution of 1994 obliges the president to deliver a programmatic speech every year on the management of the state and plans for the coming year.
The previous intervention of Putin before the Federal Assembly (Duma and Senate) dates from April 2021, so many now expected it to address deputies and senators with a positive agenda in times of sanctions and isolation.
The Kremlin did not like the fact that the state press was speculating regarding the dates of the speech and its spokesman, Dmitri Peskov, urged them to stop “forecasting the future in the coffee grounds”, although he himself promised in September that the address would take place this year.
In March 2014 Putin took advantage of the speech to announce the annexation of Crimea and in 2018 an unparalleled hypersonic weapons program capable of circumventing any Western anti-missile shield.
Although some suggest the cancellation is unconstitutional, Putin He did not even consult the decision with the president of the Constitutional Court, the Kremlin admitted this week.
According to polls, more than half of Russians advocate a peaceful settlement of the conflict and, according to independent sources, the percentage of people who believe that Putin was wrong to order military intervention is increasing. And it is that the contest has had an impact on wages, the cost of living and trips abroad.
Elections in 2024
Putin has focused in recent weeks on inaugurating roads, fields, icebreakers and other infrastructure. He met with the mothers of soldiers – all linked to the Kremlin party – but he is reluctant to order the end of the mobilization, even though the Ombudsman acknowledges that he receives dozens of daily complaints regarding it.
The press notes that Putin He has the 2024 presidential elections in mind. No one doubts that he will run for reelection – the constitutional reform allows him to remain in power until 2036 – but for this they have to solve the Ukrainian problem first. A defeat would turn the elections into a referendum on his person.
Ukraine he believes that Moscow is preparing a major offensive for early next year in order to change the tide of the contest. the schedule of Putin in 2023 it will depend on its success.
For not having, this year there will not even be the traditional ice hockey game that is held every New Year’s Eve in Red Square with the participation of the country’s top senior officials. EFE
