This time around, it’s not easy to predict the half-year return as at November 30 of our two labour-sponsored funds, the Fonds de solidarité FTQ and Fondaction CSN.
On the other hand, thanks to a successful month of November, both on the stock market and the bond market, the Fonds FTQ and Fondaction should reveal results that are somewhat better than the return accumulated during the first five months of the semester.
In November, stock markets ended the month with substantial gains ranging from 5.5% (for Toronto and New York) to 10% and more in Europe, Asia and emerging markets. In addition, the bond indices also recorded solid gains.
During the previous months, the financial markets had experienced fairly difficult periods due, in particular, to the sharp rise in interest rates and the risks of recession that this raises.
Very difficult predictions
Now, was November’s good performance enough to erase the losses possibly accumulated during the previous months of the semester? I admit that it is very difficult to predict the outcome.
This is why it is impossible for me, for once, to recommend to shareholders who can get their marbles out of the two labour-sponsored funds to do so or not before the unveiling of the new share price.
During the previous semi-annual review of share prices as of May 31, the Fonds de solidarité FTQ had reported a 5.7% drop in its share price and Fondaction CSN, an 8.7% drop.
The main indicators
In addition to holding many private securities in their portfolios, since labour-sponsored funds have more than half of their respective assets in development capital investments, performance comparisons with the usual financial markets only serve to give an insight into potential return. Nothing more.
Here, then, according to data compiled by the firm Aubin Actuaire, is the half-year return in Canadian dollars, as of November 30, of the major stock market indices:
- S&P / TSX de Toronto : + 0,3%
- New York S&P 500 : + 6.4%
- MSCI World (ex-US): +2.9%
- MSCI Emerging Markets: -1.5%
For their part, the bond indices remained in good shape, or almost, during the period from June 1 to November 30.
Quebec indices
With regard to Quebec stock market indices, the IQ30 of large Quebec companies listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange gained some 3.7% during this semester.
The IQ-120 index, which includes 120 Quebec companies, rose by barely 1.8%.
Another interesting indicator: the exchange-traded fund QXM (CI Morningstar Ntn’l Bk Quebec Idx ETF). The latter recorded an increase of 4.7% during the six months ending on November 30.
As you can see, the “benchmark” indicators are positive.
Except one, the S&P Venture index of growth stocks listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange.
From June to November, this index of small Canadian companies posted a significant decline of 19.6%.
