“The blue can stay a little more offered these days because seasonally always in December there is an increase in the demand for pesos plus incoming tourismwhich would also appear to began to influence the MEP. Coming out of the very short term, I think they have more upside risks than downside free dollars“, hill.
At the same time, financial analyst Christian Buteler, also agreed that the trend is bullish. In dialogue with Ámbito, he assured that he believes that “he will follow this path that began a month ago, although December is seasonally a month of greater demand for money I think that the pesos that are being issued and will be issued will boost all the alternative dollars“.
How far can the blue dollar be worth at the end of the year
The Economist Federico Glustein He assured, also in a chat with this medium, that the demand for alternative dollars will increase as a consequence of two events: “On the one hand, outbound tourism that due to the summer vacations will progressively require foreign currency and on the other hand, the dollarization of portfolios as a result of the collection of bonuses and bonuses typical of this time of year.
Along these lines, he remarked that the foreign exchange earnings for the soybean dollar II and the dollar for tourists may moderate the risesand achieve so there are no sudden jumps in the prices of these last two weeks.
“Surely as much the blue as MEP and CCL rise staggered in the form of a saw, that is, an upward trend with falls between that trend. That’s why I think the parallel will touch $335 similar to the MEP while the CCL will exceed $340though without touching the ceiling of $350″.
Natalia Motyl, economist and CEO of NM consultingin dialogue with Scope, stressed that there are so many local and international factors that explain higher volatility compared to other years. Of the locals, “we are entering a period that We demand more pesos and offer more dollars for a seasonal issue of vacations, bonuses, and parties. Argentines tend to demand more pesos and resort to the dollars they have in their mattress to meet these higher expenses. That favors the dollar is stable“.
In addition, the economist mentioned that in the last auctions interest rates were attractive for some Treasury bonds so “those investors they did not go to demand foreign currency assets“. In his story he also listed another factor: “The liquidation of the agro-export sector increased the reserves of the Central Bank, even though it was not what they had expected. The devaluation attempt is completely ruled out by the Government. Until March one would tend to think that investors are going to be calm.”
As for the external frontassured that the rise in interest rates of the main central banks of the world “it is having a negative impact and counteracts the positive effect of some local factors”and that “even the central bank’s policy of slowing down the crawling pega starting in January and keeping rates stable in a context where monetary policy becomes more restrictive, impact on emerging markets“.
According to Motyl, “the blue dollar is going to start to pressure in the last two weeks”. “We are going to start to see volatility, surely, without spikes to respond to overshooting. It’s going to stay pretty calm. The blue dollar will be pivoting between $325. No major changes are expected until the second half of February. The peso will continue with monthly devaluations between 4% and 5%“.
