Global consumption of coal, the leading source of CO2 emissions, is expected to reach a new record in 2022, driven in particular by increased, albeit temporary, demand from Europe.
This global consumption should increase by 1.2% compared to last year, to more than 8 billion tons, beating a record of 2013, according to the annual report on coal drawn up by the International Energy Agency ( IEA) and published on Friday.
This global demand should then remain at approximately this level until 2025, ‘in the absence of additional efforts to accelerate the energy transition’, estimates the IEA, which foresees a decline in the advanced economies but a demand still ‘robust’ in Asia.
Consequence for the climate: coal, the most harmful energy of all, will remain immediately and by far the primary source of CO2 in the global energy system.
“The world is close to a peak in its use of fossil fuels, led by the expected decline of coal, but we are not there yet,” said Keisuke Sadamori, director of energy markets and security at IEA: ‘Coal demand is resilient and will likely hit an all-time high this year, pushing global emissions higher’.
‘At the same time, many signals show that the current crisis is also accelerating the deployment of renewables, energy efficiency, the use of heat pumps’, adds the expert, for whom ‘government measures will be decisive’ to accelerate this movement.
In a context of energy crisis, the demand for coal, to produce electricity, benefited this year in particular from the increase in the price of gas, even if the economic slowdown reduced the demand for electricity.
In China (53% of global consumption), demand has suffered, on the one hand, from confinements linked to Covid, but drought and heat waves have also boosted air conditioning needs and reduced the possible use of hydroelectricity.
Europe, faced with the drop in gas deliveries from Russia, should for its part see its coal consumption increase in 2022 for the second consecutive year.
Coal prices, however, rose to unprecedented levels in March and then in June, in the wake of gas prices but also production difficulties in Australia, a key supplier.
But the three main world producers – China, India and Indonesia – have all broken their production records this year.
As a glimmer in this landscape, the report sees no movement of investments in favor of projects intended for export.
‘This reflects the caution of investors and mining companies regarding the prospects for coal in the medium and long term’, underlines the agency, created in 1974 by the OECD to advise states on their energy policy.
/ATS
