The mainland has relaxed anti-epidemic measures at a rapid pace. The “Communication Itinerary Card” app was removed from the shelves on December 13, which means that the “Travel Code” will be abandoned, and the whereregardings of people in the past seven days will no longer be tracked. This is also an important sign that the mainland is moving towards normalcy.
The action in the center is fast, and the place is also adjusted quickly. I think everything should be started from the perspective of “fighting the economy”.
Hong Kong people care regarding when to clear customs with the mainland. When asked regarding customs clearance with the mainland, Chief Executive Lee Ka-chao said that he believed it would be possible in 2023. But 2023 is a long time. He is impatient and hopes to have results soon. He emphasized that customs clearance with the Mainland requires a win-win situation.
The “win-win” mentioned by the Chief Executive is very important. Hong Kong cannot just consider from its own point of view and ask the mainland to open up.
However, I think that if Hong Kong and the Mainland clear customs, special consideration should be given to striving for customs clearance with Guangdong Province first. The conditions are rapidly maturing, and the key is that customs clearance can be a “win-win”.
Last year, when Hong Kong and the mainland discussed customs clearance, it was said that the Hong Kong and Macau systems were in favor, while Guangdong Province and the National Health and Medical Commission opposed it. The reason was that the epidemic control policies of Hong Kong and the mainland were not synchronized, and there was a risk of epidemic spillover in customs clearance. Frankly speaking, under the strict zero-clearing requirements in the Mainland at that time, this view once morest customs clearance is justified. After passing the customs, the epidemic broke out in Guangdong, and the responsible officials might not be guaranteed at any time. If I were him, I would strongly oppose it.
But today is different.
1. The economy of Guangdong and Hong Kong desperately needs to speed up. The economies of the two places have slowed down sharply this year. The GDP of Guangdong Province in the first three quarters of this year grew by 2.3% year-on-year, while Guangdong’s growth in the first three quarters of last year was 9.7%. This year’s growth has slowed down significantly.
In the first three quarters of this year, Hong Kong’s GDP contracted by 3.2% year-on-year, while it grew by 7% in the first three quarters of last year, and it is in rapid recession this year. Both Guangdong and Hong Kong need to boost their economies. It is better to start one month earlier than one month later.
2. Customs clearance between the two places will not increase the risk of the epidemic. In the past, the mainland required clearing, and Guangdong and Hong Kong were indeed difficult to clear following customs clearance, but now the mainland no longer requires clearing, and the situation is completely different.
At present, regarding 15,000 people are diagnosed in Hong Kong every day. It is estimated that the actual number of confirmed cases is double that of 30,000, accounting for 0.4% of the population. Assuming customs clearance between the two places, a daily quota of 10,000 returnees to Guangdong is still set at the initial stage. It is estimated that 40 of Hong Kong’s returnees to Guangdong each day are virus carriers. The total number of symptomatic and asymptomatic confirmed cases in Guangdong Province on a single day on December 11 was 2,311. Assuming that the actual number of confirmed cases is doubled, that is 4,600. Imported cases in Hong Kong are less than one per cent of local cases, and the increased risk is insignificant.
3. Guangdong and Hong Kong join hands to fight for the economy. After the two places clear the customs, they can attract tourists to each other in a planned way and activate local consumption. After Hong Kong was opened to return to Hong Kong for 0+3 quarantine earlier, a large number of Hong Kong people traveled abroad. The outbreak of the epidemic began in the Mainland, and the number of people going abroad to avoid the epidemic will also increase. Fertile water does not flow to other people’s fields, so why not connect Guangdong and Hong Kong? In addition, the two places can use the name of customs clearance to vigorously promote the resumption of business activities that often fight the economy. Guangdong and Hong Kong work together to achieve twice the result with half the effort.
Fourth, if the economy is backward, you will lose your official position. In the past, mainland officials lost their jobs if they did not do enough to control the epidemic. I believe that next year, mainland officials will lose their jobs if they fail to boost the economy. China’s exports in November fell by 8.7% year-on-year, the largest year-on-year drop in a single month since February 2020, and the economic pressure is enormous.
On November 30th, Guangzhou took the lead in relaxing the lockdown measures, becoming the vanguard in relaxing anti-epidemic policies in the Mainland. In the future, it can also become the vanguard of the mainland’s opening up. First, take the opening up of Hong Kong as a pilot, try it first, and break out a world.
Hong Kong and Guangdong must think regarding win-win, and Hong Kong and Guangdong must strive for performance together. Now is the time for the brothers and sisters in Guangdong and Hong Kong to fight together. If things come to fruition, I believe history will remember that Guangdong and Hong Kong are the vanguards of China’s economic recovery.
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Lu Yongxiong
