The European Commission anticipates a sharp decline in the share of palm oil in biodiesel and food in the European Union over the next ten years. A drop in consumption that in fact lead to a drop in imports. Thus, palm oil is expected to represent only 9% of total biodiesel production by 2032, compared to an average of 23% for 2019/21, according to the European Commission’s agricultural outlook for 2022-2032.
The decline in palm oil in biodiesel will be the result of the European Renewable Energy Directive, which requires the phasing out of palm oil fuels by 2030. The share of advanced biodiesels is expected to on the other hand, to increase from 29% in 2019/21 to 42% in 2032. Biodiesel from used oils and fats would represent 26% of this share, compared to 23% previously, and other advanced biodiesels 16%, compared to 6% . “This increase is mainly related to the specific fuel blending targets for advanced biofuels and the fact that they can be counted twice in the mandatory blending targets.“, says the report. The use of other vegetable oils, mainly rapeseed oil, in biodiesel is expected to remain relatively stable, at around 50% of the biodiesel feedstock.
In food, the use of vegetable oils was expected to increase by 2.9% compared to the 2020/22 average to reach 10.6 million tonnes in 2032.
Efforts to reduce the use of palm oil and soybean oil in the EU would, however, lead to a significant change in the balance between different types of vegetable oils, according to the Commission’s forecasts.
The use of palm oil in food would decrease by 35.7% and that of soybean oil by 23.5%, while rapeseed oil would increase by 12.6% and sunflower oil by 27.5%, the report shows.
Palm oil imports into the European Union are thus expected to fall to 3.3 million tonnes in 2032, compared to 6 million tonnes in 2020/2022.
