CITIC Construction Investment: At the end of the year, the demand for stable growth will improve the style or the rotation of related sectors in the stable growth chain

Securities Times e company news, China Securities Research Report pointed out that the demand for stable growth at the end of the year has increased, and the style may rotate to the relevant sectors of the stable growth chain. Some provincial and municipal special bonds have been approved in advance, and the central bank cut the reserve ratio once more. Real estate financing support policies are frequently introduced, and the market has corrected the pessimistic expectations of “guaranteeing projects but not the main body” in the early stage. With the promulgation of the “Sixteen Financial Measures”, major state-owned banks have responded positively by granting more than one trillion yuan in credit, and high-quality real estate companies are the first to benefit; superimposed liquidity margins are loose, promoting the fundamentals of the stable growth chain, especially the restoration of pessimistic expectations for banks and real estate. The resumption is in a similar economic fundamental environment and the same destocking period of 2011-2012, 2014-2015, 2018 and 2021. The overall fourth quarter is characterized by the obvious dominance of counter-cyclical assets, which is represented by the average monthly income in the fourth quarter In terms of statistics, stable sectors (real estate, banking, public transportation) > TMT (media communication electronics) > midstream manufacturing and optional consumption. Corresponding to the performance of the industry this year, also under the background of uncertain economic expectations + the basic response to the high-prosperity track and prosperity expectations of the year, the short-term style may rotate in the direction of “steady growth”. From the perspective of long-term policy orientation, high-level technological self-reliance may become the main line of medium and long-term investment.

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