In the case of high profits, the export of white sugar is considerable, and the pressure of hedging is concerned | India

Research report text

supply and demand:

Global: ISO: There is no supply gap in the global market in 21/22 and there is a surplus of 237,000 tons. The previous forecast is a shortage of 1.92 million tons, mainly because India continues to increase its production forecast. The surplus of sugar supply in the 22/23 year is expected to be 6.2 million tons.

Thailand: The U.S. Department of Agriculture predicts that sugar production will return to 10 million tons in 22/23, a year-on-year decrease of 600,000 tons.

India: ISMA expects that if the monsoon rains are normal, sugar production in 22/23 is expected to reach 36 million tons following considering the shift of 3.4 million tons of sugar production to ethanol production, which is the same as this year’s estimate.

Brazil: As of the end of October, sugar production was 30.28 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3%.

China: Sugar production in 21/22 was 9.56 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.11 million tons; sugar production in 22/23 was 10.05 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 490,000 tons, a decrease of 300,000 tons compared with the estimated value in October. Import and export In the 2021/22 crushing season, my country imported 520,000 tons of sugar in October, a decrease of 290,000 tons from the same period last year, and a decrease of 260,000 tons from September.

in stock:China’s industrial inventories fell 15% year-on-year and 47% month-on-month to 890,000 tons in September.View:In the new year, the global sugar supply is in surplus, and the increase is limited. In the short term, focus on Brazil’s logistics and India’s exports in terms of rhythm. Exports are considerable under high-profit conditions. Domestic production has been reduced due to the drought in Guangxi, Zheng sugar imports are upside down, and attention is paid to cost support. Domestic squeeze is imminent, pay attention to the pressure of hedging. Pay attention to macro sentiment.

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