The rise in fixed terms, which is already at 75% per year, caused savers to stop buying dollars in the parallel market and turn to these instruments. However, several analysts warn that this might end if the Central Bank’s reserves continue to fall.
The high rate strategy has an impact on fiscal accounts, since both the BCRA and the Treasury must offer higher yields to place debt. High rates can generate some reduction in inflationary pressure, although in the current context of uncertainty this does not work entirely well.
A few months ago, the annual nominal interest rate of the 28-day Liquidity Letters (Leliq) went from 69.5% to 75%. In the case of fixed terms of individuals, a new floor was established at 75% per year for 30-day placements for up to $10 million. And for the rest of the private fixed terms, the minimum guaranteed rate was 66.5%.
For several analysts, This increase does not ensure that fixed terms remain in positive territory, since for that monthly inflation should be below 6% per monthsomething complicated considering the high inflationary inertia for the coming months.
The annual nominal interest rate of the 28-day Liquidity Letters (Leliq) went from 69.5% to 75%
For its part, the blue dollar has been rising little by little following remaining stable for several weeks and some analysts are already warning that it might overheat at the end of the year and exceed $300, among other things due to an increase in demand for tourism and Christmas bonuses.
As they say, the stability of the parallel is very difficult to sustain with inflation rising between 6% and 7% per month, added to the issuance and stocks. They also ensure that the offer of blue is quite wide, both by tourists who sell dollars in the informal market because it has a better price and by those who bought in the informal market and also end up selling later in the same market.
It is expected that the demand for the blue will grow in the short term due to several factors: year-end bonuses and/or Christmas bonuses, outbound tourism and portfolio dollarization, although this effect might occur closer to the end of the month.
According to more than 40 consultancies surveyed by the FocusEconomics firm, “the peso should weaken further by the end of the year and in 2023 due to the continued issuance of money and high inflation.” The consultants that projected the highest official dollar values were Orlando Ferreres ($184.4); Empiria Consultants ($181.80); EcoViews ($179.80); LCG ($179.6) and Oxford Economics ($179.50).
The estimates are in line with the latest Survey of Market Expectations (REM) of the Central Bank, which slightly corrected its projections and estimated that the wholesale dollar will reach $173.13 in December, with a 68.6% increase throughout the year. year.
