(CNN) — The United States accuses North Korea of secretly supplying a significant amount of artillery shells to Russia for use in the Ukraine war, and of attempting to hide the shipments by pretending that the ammunition is being shipped to countries in the Middle East or North America. Africa, according to recently declassified intelligence reports.
US officials believe North Korea’s surreptitious shipments, along with drones and other weapons Russia has acquired from Iran, are further evidence that even Moscow’s conventional artillery stockpiles have dwindled during the eight months of combat.
The shipments come regarding two months following US intelligence reports said they believed Russia was in the process of buying millions of rockets and artillery shells from North Korea for use on the battlefield, according to reports. that CNN and other media reported at the time.
“In September, the People’s Republic of North Korea (NPRK) publicly denied that it intended to provide munitions to Russia,” National Security Council Strategic Communications Coordinator John Kirby said in a statement to CNN.
“However, our information indicates that the RPCN is covertly supplying a significant number of artillery shells for Russia’s war in Ukraine, while hiding the actual destination of the arms shipments by trying to make it appear that they are being shipped to countries of Middle East and East and North Africa,” he added.
Officials gave no evidence to support the new accusations. The declassified intelligence reports also do not give details regarding how many weapons are part of the shipments, or how they are paid for.
“We will continue to monitor whether these shipments are received,” Kirby said.
Russia tries to resupply its artillery
However, US officials have publicly presented the alleged deal as evidence that Russia is trying to maintain its weapons stockpiles to continue the conflict.
Just two weeks ago, Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines argued that “export controls are forcing Russia to turn to countries like Iran and North Korea for supplies, including drones, artillery shells, etc. and rockets.”
North Korea’s shipments, however, might help Russia bolster an important part of its war effort: frontline artillery engagements.
“It might be significant because one of the challenges for Russia was sustaining artillery fire,” said Michael Kofman, director of the Russia Studies Program at the Center for Naval Analyses, who stressed that he was not aware of the intelligence report. “The Russian military has likely used millions of shells at this point.”
Russia has been “making up for a manpower shortfall with much higher fire production,” Kofman said, a strategy that has “probably been very costly in terms of ammunition supplies” and has left Russia, like Ukraine, , traveling the world in search of countries with supplies compatible with Soviet weapons to guarantee the maintenance of the war.
In the weeks leading up to the new intelligence reports, some military and intelligence officials began to believe that North Korea was backing away from its agreement to provide weapons to Russia, several officials told CNN.
A building used as the headquarters of the regional military administration lies in ruins following being destroyed by a Russian missile attack, on October 31, 2022 in Mykolaiv, Mykolaiv oblast, Ukraine. (Photo by Carl Court/Getty Images)
Some officials had begun touting it as a victory for the Joe Biden administration’s strategy of selectively declassifying and publishing classified war information by Russia, believing that when the US unveiled the deal, it revealed a transaction that Pyongyang I didn’t want it to be known.
Now, however, US officials say that despite North Korea’s denials, the rogue regime has gone ahead with its support for Moscow as the war appears poised to enter its second year.
US officials have publicly argued that Russia was forced to turn to North Korea and Iran for weapons because it depleted its stockpiles in a conflict that has dragged on for many months longer than anticipated, and because US export controls and Westerners have made it very difficult for Russia to acquire the technological components it needs to rebuild its stocks.
“They are eager to get ammunition from anywhere they can get it”
New intelligence that Russia is acquiring artillery shells from North Korea suggests that their shortage goes beyond more sophisticated precision-guided munitions, which have long been singled out as a weak point in the Russian arsenal. On the contrary, the difficulties would also involve the basic artillery.
“The Russians, in many ways, are really running out of some of the supplies they need to continue their war once morest Ukraine,” State Department spokesman Ned Price said Tuesday, pointing to export controls and sanctions that have deprived to Russia of the materials to make certain weapons.
Russia’s conventional ammunition stockpiles are not publicly known, but it is known to be “using tens of thousands of rounds per day,” said Adam Mount, director of the Defense Posture Project at the Federation of American Scientists, which specializes in North Korea. “They are eager to get ammunition from wherever they can get it.”
During the summer, Russia made some progress in parts of Ukraine through a heavy-handed artillery campaign. But since then, independent artillery provided by the West has contributed to a successful push for the Ukrainian counteroffensive, which has allowed Kyiv to recapture large swathes of territory.
North Korea is likely to provide Russia with 122- or 152-millimeter artillery shells and tube artillery or multiple rocket launcher artillery compatible with Russia’s systems, said Bruce Klingner, a former Korea analyst at the Central Intelligence Agency, now at the Heritage Foundation.
However, it is unclear how much impact North Korea’s artillery shells will have for Russia on the battlefield.
In 2010, North Korea fired 170 122-millimeter shells at Yeonpyeong Island in South Korea. Fewer than half hit the island and, among them, regarding a quarter failed to detonate. This is a high failure rate that “suggests that some artillery ammunition manufactured in the RPCN, especially rounds [de lanzacohetes múltiples]suffer from poor quality control during manufacturing or poor storage standards and conditions,” according to a 2016 report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
“The last time they used these systems they showed them to be quite inaccurate,” Mount said. “One would expect that these Soviet-era systems are aging, so they will start to break down.”