Denis Lantoine : Hello everyone, I am delighted to meet you for this new chat. With a Cac 40 still very volatile but which manages to continue the upward movement of the end of last week in a good way. +2% at 4 p.m., we find the threshold of 6,000 points on the Cac 40.
It’s time for your questions.
frederic 97: Hello sir, do you think that the decline of the CAC 40 should be used to position oneself for the purchase? Thanks in advance and happy chatting.
Question on the market to begin with therefore. And, on this subject, I stick to my last positions, which favor a cautious approach.
Why ? For a very simple reason, we have not yet experienced the peak of inflation or detected signs of the beginning of a calm, in Europe obviously due in particular to energy prices, but also and above all in the United States. , the main driver of the major international equity markets.
I refer you to the latest figures published last Thursday. They were disappointing, especially when you look at the so-called “core” data, ie excluding volatile elements such as energy and food. On this basis, prices have continued to rise, which shows that inflation has fully entered the economy, into companies, which will weigh on margins, and even growth, given the ability to pricing power which will begin to be limited.
If the American indices soared following this publication, this is only due to simple technical criteria, with automatic purchases triggered by the reaching of very important graphic thresholds, and redemptions of short positions (shorts) by operators who did not want to end up in the wrong direction.
Besides, we quickly lowered on Friday.
In the scenario that we present at the beginning of our weekly, we estimate at 70% the probability that the Cac 40 will end the year below 6,000 points, therefore below current levels, of which 30% between 5,400 and 5,700 points and 25% between the 5,700 and 6,000 points.
If we take a look at the side of the graphic analysis, the main resistance, the one to cross, is at 6,158 points, according to our partner Trading Central, which effectively leaves little potential, around a hundred points. On the downside, support is at 5,790 points at the close of the day.
As Rémi pointed out in a previous chat, stocks only hit their lows once economies have entered a recession. And traditionally, the real rebound only begins to be seen in the midst of an economic recession.
Let’s move on to your other questions now.
soursdey: Hello Mr. Lantoine. During a partial or total redemption of a life insurance contract, does the bank or the managing organization have the right to ask us what the money withdrawn will be used for or the reason for the withdrawal? Thanks in advance.
At first, I would say no. Having already made partial withdrawals on a life insurance contract once or twice, I was not asked the question. But it is possible that beyond a certain amount, you will be asked for it. For very large amounts perhaps.
Lorvalak: Hello. I receive a monthly Swiss pension. How can I protect myself in the future from a much less favorable exchange rate than at present? Thank you for your reply. Cordially.
I see only one thing to do if you want to protect yourself from exchange rate effects, set up partial or total hedging operations (pay attention to the cost in this case, it can turn out to be significant), via the use derivative products, calls or puts, on the euro-Swiss franc.
Upset: The Eurofins Scientific price is back towards its levels of May 2020. The price trend is still strongly bearish. Has the company not accomplished anything for more than 2 years? And are its prospects so bleak? Should you replace yourself and for what purpose?
Yes, and I see several explanations for this. First, Eurofins Scientific is a typical growth stock. the context of rising interest rates is unfavorable to it, as we have been repeating since the beginning of the year and this phenomenon of rising inflation.
Second, Eurofins does part of its business in Covid. With the end of the high demand for test products linked to the end of the pandemic peak, the general impression given by the evolution of turnover is not favorable in the eyes of investors, therefore for the evolution of the share price.
It is for these reasons that Eurofins Scientific is one of the Cac 40 stocks that we sold when we sorted through the flagship index.
LAURENT: Hello. I followed your advice a few months ago and bought NEOEN in my PEA as a long-term investor. In your last weekly, you recommend IBERDROLA as a value to hold over the long term. What would you advise me to do: sell NEOEN and buy IBERDROLA? Keeping NEOEN for the long term? Why give priority to IBERDROLA over NEOEN? Thanks.
We are buyers of both stocks, one, for its international profile, having been included in our Investir 10 selection. The sector is buoyant, and there will be big winners. I think both Neoen and Iberdrola can be part of it. I advise you to keep them.
Jacques: Hello Denis, Faurecia continues its stock market decline, with a price divided by 4 compared to a year ago. Is this the right time to invest, or should we wait for the price to settle? The stock has touched a 10-year-old support, can it fall further?
It is true that it might be tempting. But basically, I’m not a fan despite this drop in action that you point out.
Visibility is still weak in the automotive sector and the situation is more favorable to manufacturers than to equipment suppliers, of which Faurecia is a part.
That of Faurecia is also weakened by the latest acquisition of the German Hella, which weighs on the debt at a time when the German and European economies are going into recession. They may already be there. It therefore seems tempting to me, but it may still be too early.
thales32: Hello and thank you for your comments. We mentioned an exceptional dividend of 1 euro from Total. In view of current social events, do you know if this dividend is still relevant and what would be the terms? Thank you for enlightening us and have a good day. Cordially.
Look, I haven’t seen or heard anything suggesting that this “special” dividend might be questioned.
Leo: NEXITY, like all listed property companies, has been completely destroyed this year. Would it be a good calculation to buy now and wait for slightly better days? Thank you for your valuable advice.
The recent announcement of the promoter’s new strategic plan disappointed and the stock plunged 20% to a session low. It has recovered a little since but it has still lost more than 50% since the start of the year. The objectives were judged to be too cautious and the management had to reassure on those related to indebtedness. I refer you to our last article published on the site which is very complete.
We remained long following the fall. The title is only paid for a little more than 6 times the net profit for 2022, which we estimate to be almost stable over one year adjusted according to the new perimeter. This ratio might recover in the event of a good surprise on earnings growth. The dividend will be at least 2.5 euros each year for five years, ie a yield that exceeds 10%. It is therefore not a bad calculation to buy now and wait, as you mention, if only for this very high yield.
There you go, our chat hour is over, it’s my friend Rémi that you will find next Monday at the controls. It only remains for me to thank you for your loyalty and the quality of your questions. Have a good day everyone.
