The U.S. economy is virtually certain to slip into a recession over the next year, Bloomberg Economics forecast models show. It might be an economic blow to US President Biden ahead of the midterm elections in November.
Economists Anna Wong and Eliza Winger have put a 100% chance of a recession by October 2023 (one year) in their latest forecasting model. In the previous analysis, it was 65%.
Bloomberg Economics’ forecast model uses 13 macroeconomic and financial indicators to project the probability of a recession over a period of one month to two years.
Not only did the model reach 100% recession probability over the next year, but it also increased the probability over a shorter period. The probability within 11 months is 73%, up from 30% in the previous analysis. The probability within 10 months increased from zero last time to 25%.
Bloomberg Economics said the deterioration in the outlook was due to a broad deterioration in the economic and financial indicators used in the model.
Original title:Forecast for US Recession Within Year Hits 100% in Blow to Biden(excerpt)
