The Syndicat de la Rizerie Française fears a sharp drop in global production, in particular due to the climatic events that have hit the main producing countries in recent months. Price increase in prospect.
The industry is sounding the “alert”. According to the Syndicat de la Rizerie Française (SRF), many risks weigh on future rice supplies. Difficulties might arise “from February / March, when the new harvests arrive”, predicts Thierry Lievin, president of the SRF. To the point of falling on empty stalls in supermarkets? Not impossible: “If there are no complete disruptions, there will at least be severe supply disruptions,” he warns.
If France produces 50,000 tons of rice per year, it imports much more to satisfy its national demand (240,000 tons consumed in supermarkets). But this year, several events suggest that world production will be in sharp decline.
India restricts its exports
All varieties will be affected. Starting with basmati rice, which represents 45% of consumption in supermarkets and hypermarkets. The main producers, India and Pakistan, have been affected in recent months by episodes of intense heat and then heavy rains which would have destroyed at least 250,000 tonnes of rice as well as the infrastructure necessary for the transport of goods (roads, bridges. ..).
Faced with this situation, India and Pakistan will “favor their population” by limiting exports, explains Thierry Liévin. However, rice is already “a product that travels very little, which is mainly consumed on the spot”, continues the president of the SRF, specifying that out of 580 million tonnes produced in the world, barely more than 50 million are exported in normal times, including 21.5 million by India.
India also announced in September a series of restrictions by prohibiting the export of broken rice (notably used to feed livestock in China) and by establishing export customs duties of 20% on white rice. and brown rice (wholemeal). Very energy-intensive, parboiled rice (a technique that prevents the grains from sticking to each other during cooking) which represents 40% of consumption in supermarkets, should also see its production drop due to soaring gas prices and electricity which does not spare Asian producers.
Even the European production of less than 3 million tons per year (of which more than half is from the arborio of Italy used for the preparation of risotto) should be less: “Water has been lacking throughout the vegetative cycle of the rice in all European countries (Italy, Spain, Greece)”, indicates the Syndicat de la Rizerie Française. “We expect a reduction in yields of 20 to 25% on Community production”, estimates Thierry Liévin.
Further price increases to come
The decline in global production linked to climatic events will automatically reinforce the inflationary surges already observed in recent months. In addition to soaring energy prices, rising wheat and maize prices due to the war in Ukraine have pushed countries like China to turn to broken rice from Burma or India to feed the cattle, “which had a very bullish effect”, recalls Thierry Liévin.
Added to this is the increase in European customs duties on the import of cargo rice from 30 to 65 euros per tonne, since September 1st. But also the strengthening of the dollar compared to other currencies: “It costs us very dearly when we import because we buy goods in dollars and resell them in euros”, underlines Thierry Liévin. After having been multiplied by five since the health crisis, transport costs are “stabilizing”, assures the president of the SRF. But “we still have a lot of trouble finding containers in sufficient quantity,” he laments.
In total, rice manufacturers have already seen their costs jump by 30% in one year. On the consumer side, shelf prices increased by more than 12% in September compared to last year, according to INSEE. At this stage, all the cost increases have therefore “not been passed on because there were goods in stock”, indicates Thierry Liévin. But “there are still increases to pass”, he warns.