During the Double Ten consecutive holiday, the United States imposed stricter chip controls on China. Ma Tieying, a senior economist at DBS Bank, said today (11) that the scope of the expansion of control by the United States happens to be an area that Taiwan is good at. It is expected that Taiwan The semiconductor industry faces headwinds in the coming quarters.
Affected by the increased control efforts in the United States, the market expects that the development of artificial intelligence (AI) and high-performance computing (HPC) in mainland China may be suppressed. Global revenue is estimated to increase by 7.4% year-on-year, far less than last year’s 26%, and it will fall into recession next year, mainly reflecting the global economic downturn and the suppression of consumers’ disposable income, dragging down the demand for consumer electronic products such as personal computers and smartphones. And indirectly affect the demand for upstream semiconductors and other electronic components.
Ma Tieying pointed out that the second reason is that global semiconductors have grown significantly for three consecutive years since 2020, and equipment spending has maintained double-digit growth, but the routine adjustment of the semiconductor industry cycle is three years, so the capital expenditure invested in 2020 will be converted into For new production capacity, the construction of new plants and the release of new production capacity also make the supply and demand situation need to be rebalanced and enter the cyclical adjustment stage.
The third reason is that the U.S.-China confrontation has shifted from a trade war to a technology war. The U.S. has expanded its export controls on Chinese chips and equipment. This time, the controls are aimed at high-performance chips and high-efficiency AI computing, which happens to be the areas that Taiwan’s semiconductor factories are good at. Taiwan semiconductor manufacturers have a greater impact.
Although Taiwan’s semiconductors will face headwinds in the next few quarters, Ma Tieying believes that relatively speaking, Taiwan’s semiconductor export performance is still better than that of South Korea, thanks to the strong competitiveness of Taiwan’s fabs and the diversification of chip products.