Inflation at levels close to 7% per month is complicating savers, who are looking for alternative ways to invest their pesos and not lose purchasing power. With this panorama, to know what is the most profitable instrumentiProfesional compared the purchase of dollars in the different markets, the placement in traditional fixed term and UVA, as well as the acquisition of shares and Bitcoin.
In this way, it was evaluated how these tools fared in the last 9 months of the year, and from early 2021 to presentfor an investment of an initial amount of $100,000.
With respect to dollarthe increasingly restricted exchange rate allows fewer people to buy the maximum amount of US$200 per month in banks and exchange houses, which today implies an equivalent of almost US$51,000 to “solidarity”, if one considers that the price of the retail ticket plus tax is $255 per US currency.
A figure that is notoriously lower than the blue dollar ($284) and the stock market note (MEP)which is located at a value around 300 pesos per unit.
Also considered were fixed terms in pesos traditional at 30 days, and the UVA, which are at 90 days and adjusted for inflation. And the Merval index of shares of leading companies listed on the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange, which closed in September with an increase of 2% and in all of 2022 rises more than 60%.
Finally, it was compared renta del Bitcoinwhich fell 3% last month and throughout the current year a total of 58% remains.
Inflation is beating investments in all of 2022. The best option is the Merval, which obtains a plus of $63,000 for having put $100,000.
Investments of 2022: actions take the baton
The rise in the last three months of the prices of the leading shares of the main panel of Buenos Aires, made this type of investment the most successful in all of 2022, although it is below inflation for the same period.
Therefore, the saver who placed at the beginning of January $100,000 in the Merval index, in the 9 months that have passed of the year he obtained a total of $163,000. So his net profit was $63,000 in all of 2022.
“Throughout this year, no investments are expected to face the rise in domestic prices. If on the first business day of 2022 a small investor with $100,000 had made the decision to apply those funds to make an investment, at the end of September should have accounted for an amount close to the $167,000 to maintain your purchasing power relative to inflation“, says iProfessional Andres Mendezdirector of AMF Economy.
After stocks, they were positioned as the most profitable on fixed term UVA, with an accumulated amount in the year of $159,740and the MEP dollar, with $150,090.
“The case of Bitcoin is relevant because not only did it lose once morest the rise in prices in the economy, but it also presented a deterioration in nominal terms of the invested capital, since those who put $100,000 at the beginning of the year today have only $62,500″, Mendez warns.
In September, fixed term UVA and dollar
As for the gains achieved only in September, for the saver who invested $100,000 last January, it must be recognized that the most profitable instrument was the fixed term UVA, because only last month he earned $10,860.
In September, the fine term UVA was the most successful option: by placing $100,000 in January, it earned $10,864 last month.
In second place, but below inflation, the official dollar, since in September it generated $7,750 with the placement of the initial money mentioned at the beginning of the year.
“In this context, no investment overwhelmed during September. Only the fixed term UVA faced the rise in the National CPI, although a monthly inflation of over 7% would place all the investments analyzed below the prices of the economy.“says Mendez.
And he completes: “On the side of the dollar, the financiers captured a certain predisposition for dollarize pesos through the legal market, something that was not noticed in the supply/demand equation of the blue, which closed at a price below the levels of August. However, the most profitable dollar was the ‘solidarity’, set by the Central Bank.”
Meanwhile, throughout September, the traditional fixed term continued to lose once morest inflation despite the rise in interest rates.
Most profitable investments since the beginning of 2021
In the longer-term outcome, the saver who placed $100,000 in early 2021, the results show that the Merval beat the inflation recorded in the last 21 months, adding $275,000 in that period.
“The best option was the Merval, which not only outperformed the other investments, but also produced profits above inflation, thanks to its good results in 2021 and a year in progress that places it at the top of yields. Without a doubt, the expectations at the beginning of last year were far from heralding a recovery in economic activity following the pandemic,” Méndez reflects to iProfesional.
From the beginning of 2021 to the present, the best investment was the index of leading shares of the Merval of Buenos Aires.
In second place, the fixed term UVA was close to equaling the rise in the IPC. And then, the other alternatives are overtaken by the rise in inflation, where one of the hardest hit assets is Bitcoin.
“In this context, although the fixed term was mixed and even surpassed certain options, such as the blue, the savings dollar and bitcoin, the accumulated loss throughout the 9 quarters of the 2021/22 period was around 19% of their purchasing power This is due to those who kept their pesos in a fixed term of 30 days, renewing it successively throughout that period, at the end of September they only acquired 81% of the amount of goods and services to which agreed at the beginning of 2021,” Mendez points out.
Investments: expectations for the last quarter
expectations for the last quarter of 2022 are concentrated in a decline in economic activity which might alter the results observed to date.
“Without an upward correction of the various definitions of dollarslike the one observed since mid-June, the stock market assets measured in pesos would not enjoy sufficient arguments to sustain the expansive process of their prices”Mendez warns.
Therefore, he considers that they might reach fixed terms become more attractive, something that those adjustable by UVA demonstrated in August and September. Regarding traditional fixed terms, Méndez considers that they might be strengthened in these months if the expansion of inflation tends to moderate slightly, to reach levels close to and/or below 6% per month. Fact that, for the moment, seems complex.-
