The outcome of the pandemic “with a view to redouble our efforts” According to the WHO, finished in the United States” according to a very optimistic Joe Biden. Does a, for now, modest eighth wave prove them right? It all depends on the criteria we set ourselves, answers epidemiologist Antoine Flahault.
Is Covid-19 on the way to becoming a winter disease like any other?
The persistence of Omicron, which is more transmissible but less virulent, and the very high vaccination coverage mean that there is no longer this perception of a pandemic that might cause major disruptions in society. We might declare the end of the pandemic. Provided that the current level of mortality is considered satisfactory. In 2002, Covid-19 was one of the leading causes of death in Europe and the United States. Is 40,000 deaths in the year, the figure probably reached in France at the end of 2022, acceptable? That’s four times the number of flu victims. The question is: what can we do together to go from 40,000 to 10,000?
“The only answer is to decrease the amplitude of the waves”
And what do you think we can do?
Omicron is eight times less lethal but eight times more transmissible than the (original) Wuhan strain. The only answer is to decrease the amplitude of the waves. We will no longer be able to adopt draconian measures. The only acceptable barrier would be wearing a mask in transport and closed places. Because the transmission is mainly by aerosol.
Will the possible return of the mask in transport be accepted?
The error was not to condition the abandonment of this measure on health indices. It would be much easier today to communicate on this subject. We will have other respiratory pandemics in the future. It would be useful to learn regarding the good habits of Asians. But it will also be necessary to improve the ventilation of the buildings.
This subject is still not taken into account?
There is a clear lack of proactive policy. Building security was designed around fire safety, not ventilation. And the current search for energy parsimony in buildings, which is legitimate, goes once morest the renewal of air. Certain processes, which consume little energy, nevertheless allow good ventilation. The 20th century was that of the challenge of clean water, the 21st century will be that of clean air.
“Covid-19 is currently not a winter disease but a disease of the four seasons”
Only sous-variants d’Omicron continue to emerge. Is it reassuring?
The situation is always changing quite quickly. The BA.2.75 variant, dominant in India, has not become so in Europe. We are witnessing an unprecedented situation, it is not a sub-variant that emerges, but a group of variants, nicknamed Pentagon, because they all present five key mutations of the Spike protein of the virus, which promote transmissibility and vaccine escape. We go from an epidemic where one variant drove out the other to a coexistence of sub-variants.
A similar diagram from that of the flu ?
Out of eight waves, we will have had four in 2022. Covid-19 is currently not a winter disease but a disease of the four seasons. The rhythm of the waves does not decrease, it accelerates.
Incomplete vaccination of vulnerable people remains the main black spot?
Today, most people who die from Covid in France are very old or immunocompromised. And for the latter, often insufficiently vaccinated. The vaccines have caused the fatality rate of the virus to collapse, which has not risen. For the general population, even at a distance from vaccination, they protect once morest serious forms.