Market consultants projected that retail inflationfor the accumulated of 2022 it will be located in 100.3 percent. This was reported by the Central Bank Market Expectations Survey. The figure is 5.3 percentage points higher than the forecast in the previous survey. GDP growth of 4.1 percent and an official exchange rate of 173 pesos are also expected by the end of this year.
Those who best forecast this variable for the short term expect an average inflation rate of 101.5 percent year-on-year for December. In addition, the consultants reviewed the inflation forecasts for 2023 locating it in 90.5 percent, that is, 6.4 percentage points above the previous survey. For 2024, they placed it at 66.8, that is, some 3.7 percentage points more than in the previous survey.
Regarding core inflation, market economists forecast that it would reach 99.2 percent year-on-year by the end of 2022 (4.3 points higher than the last survey). For August 2022, the median of the estimates of those who participated in the previous REM survey suggested an inflation of 6.5 percent per month, while the data observed in that month turned out to be 7.0 percent. For September 2022, the median of the estimates of the current survey was 6.7 per month, while the average of the best forecasters estimates it at 6.9.
Gross domestic product
The consultants who participate in the Survey of Market Expectations, meanwhile, expect real GDP growth for 2022 of 4.1 percent (0.5 points more than in the previous report). Those who best forecast economic growth suggest an average increase in GDP for 2022 of 4.3 percent (0.6 points higher compared to the August survey).
Regarding the seasonally adjusted quarterly variation of the GDP, for the third quarter of 2022 the consultants estimated a fall of 0.5 percent without seasonality, which implies a contraction 0.9 percentage points lower in relation to the previous survey (-1 .4 percent without seasonality).
The variation estimate corresponding to the fourth quarter of 2022 was corrected to -1.1 percent without seasonality, resulting in 0.1 percentage points lower than the August survey. Meanwhile, in the current survey in which it is asked for the first time, they project an expansion of 0.3 percent without seasonality for the first quarter of 2023.
Exchange rate and external front
The consultants slightly corrected their projections of the nominal exchange rate. They forecast that the exchange rate will reach 173.13 pesos per dollar in December 2022. Those who most accurately forecast this variable with short-term horizons projected that the average nominal exchange rate for December 2022 will be 171.37.
Regarding the value of exports, the consultants estimate an amount for 2022 of 89,344 million dollars, increasing by 819 million dollars in relation to the last survey. The best forecasters projected the value of exports for 2022 at 88,669 million. Meanwhile, the value of imports for the year 2022 would be 83,775 million, this is 2,285 million above the forecast of the previous survey. The best forecasters put the value of annual imports for 2022 on average at $84.26 billion.
On the other hand, for the third quarter of 2022, the median of the unemployment rate forecasts was 7.3 percent of the Economically Active Population (EAP), decreasing 0.3 points compared to the previous survey. Meanwhile, for the fourth quarter of 2022 it rose to 7.5 percent, and for the first quarter of 2023 it was projected at 7.7 percent. For their part, the “top 10 forecasters” estimate that said variable will reach 7.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2022.
