If the first snowflakes have already fallen in northern Quebec, it would be a first for the more densely populated areas south of the 49th parallel.
The conditions will be met
The coolness, well established over Quebec, will favor the formation of solid precipitation towards the end of next week. An atmospheric trough will effectively encourage the descent of arctic air from the north of the continent. Nighttime temperatures might approach 0°C and even drop below in several places.
Between Thursday and Saturday, all the conditions will therefore be met. The night from Thursday to Friday will be one to watch closely: the absence of sun and the frozen ground might give a boost to the white carpet.
However, several uncertainties remain.
Scenario 1: broadside
A broadside would even be possible for Abitibi-Témiscamingue, and Val-d’Or might be entitled to it. This region is often the first to get snow, starting in the first week of October. A portion of Nord-du-Québec, including the municipality of Chibougamau, is also on the list.
Good to know – The term lined is used when snow accumulations equal to or greater than 15 cm are forecast.
Sectors a little further south might also see snow, but the chances of seeing accumulations are slimmer. The Hautes-Laurentides and Estrie might see some snowflakes, especially in the mountains. For the St. Lawrence Valley, including the metropolitan area, we will still have to wait. The snowflakes generally appear around the last week of October for Montreal.
Scenario 2: missed opportunity
If the temperatures are a little warmer and the low pressure center takes a northerly trajectory, the rendezvous with the first snow may be missed.
you made them…
However, keep in mind that this snow might have difficulty accumulating. At the moment, weather models do not agree on the exact quantities expected. The mercury that remains, following all, close to the freezing point muddys the waters. At such temperatures, the snow tends to be heavier and denser, which generally results in lower accumulations. A few centimeters might still fill the floor. Additionally, the path of the system that might bring snow in its wake remains uncertain, and precipitation is dependent on that path.
