How likely is it that a meteor will hit Earth?

Upon impact of the ship Dart of just 19 meters once morest the giant Dimorphos, began the process of planetary defense, mechanisms that in the future might save life. If at any time it becomes necessary for a celestial body to be diverted towards Earth and threaten life or the planet’s climatic conditions —as happened a few years ago 66 million years with the dinosaurs— It is expected that these techniques that are currently being tested can be implemented.

With the success of ship impact Dart on the asteroid Dimorphos completed the first stage of the mission. The second part consists of analyzing How much did its orbit change? which took 11.9 hours to go around Didymos, another asteroid 390 meters in diameter much larger than Dimorphos which is 160 meters. Now with this event, scientists expect there to be at least a 5-10 minute change in its orbital path.

How likely is this to happen once more? According to Malory Agudelo Vásquez, promoter of the Medellín Planetarium, the probability that meteorites hit the Earth is 100% because the scientific community recognizes the dynamics and movements of the Solar System, only within it there are 28,000 celestial bodies. Nevertheless, you cannot predict when that interaction will happen.

“With Dart we are preparing ourselves in case an urgent planetary defense case occurs and we know what to do. I don’t know if a meteorite ends life in general, because life is an emergent phenomenon that clings to its existence.

In the cinema, dystopian realities have already been represented that speak of large meteorites that are approaching, as in the film of Don’t look up (Don’t look up, in Spanish) directed by Adam McKay, in which a meteorite of the proportions of the Earth approaches to end everything.

Here is the moment when the Dart spacecraft collided with the Dimorphos meteorite.

Although the Nasa and other space agencies like The European Space Agency (ESA, for its acronym in English) are evaluating possible defense mechanisms in case this happens, astronomers They have been evaluating the celestial bodies near the Earth for years y none have a chance to hit until 2182, year in which there is a chance that a meteorite known as Determine impact the Earth. However, these data can change at any time.

“Close objects have been monitored and mapped by scientists, but there are interactions between them and that might generate a risk that in the future due to the same collisions, there may be a change. However, for now there is no data on meteorites that are an imminent threat to Earth,” explains Zusi Eil González, an astronomer who graduated from the University of Antioquia.

To know more: A journey between NASA and Russia took off to the International Space Station

Although they have not been life-threatening, foreign bodies have already entered the Earth’s atmosphere that caused tragedies such as the Chelyabinsk fireball that happened on February 15, 2013 in the city of the same name, located in Russia. This is one of the most recent events, in which the very bright meteor Approximately 20 meters in diameter, it pierced the Earth’s layer and caused a very strong shock wave.

“There were more than 1,500 injuries and damage to infrastructure due to broken glass,” recalls astronomer Zusi Eil.

The impact or effects of the asteroid on Earth depends on the proportions of this meteorite. However, the fall of these celestial bodies affects the atmosphere and can cause earthquakes, tsunamis, fires, among other phenomena.

The importance of missions like Dart is undeniable. For now, the future of planetary defense is being defined with the first achievements of Dart, the mission that arrived in space in November 2021 to test planetary defenses.

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