August exports grew 7.5%YoY, accelerating from 4.3% last month, as the shortage of semiconductor chips was eased, which had a positive effect on industrial exports. coupled with increasing demand for agricultural products and food Including the depreciation of the baht. Gold exports have returned to expand by 16.7%. Export value this month grew 7.4% YoY.
Krungthai COMPASS expects exports for the rest of this year to slow down. In addition, exports of electronics products tended to weaken, reflecting the slowdown in semiconductor demand indicators. due to the demand for food products
Export value in the first eight months grew by 11%.
August exports were at $23,632 million, an increase of 7.5%YoY, accelerating from the previous month’s increase of 4.3%YoY, the 18th straight month of expansion due to accelerated exports of industrial products. As the shortage of semiconductor chips is easing, it has a positive effect on automobile exports. and electronic equipment to expand Meanwhile, exports of agricultural products and agro-industry continued to expand in response to the demand for agricultural and food products. As well as the depreciation of the baht, exports continued to grow well. Exports in the first 8 months grew by 11.0%, while gold exports this month returned to expand by 16.7%. Export value this month grew 7.4% YoY.
The export of goods some continued to expand
• Exports of industrial goods expanded for the 18th straight month at 9.2%YoY, accelerating from the previous month’s growth of only 0.1%YoY, driven by the resumption of exports of automobiles, equipment and components (+22.5% YoY), continued expansion of gems and jewelry exports (+31.2%YoY), circuit boards (+25.1%YoY), machinery and components (+15.6%YoY), air conditioners and components (+61.1%YoY), etc. However, oil-related products (-11.4%YoY) and rubber products (-0.2%YoY) continued to contract.
Exports of agricultural and agro-industry products continued to expand for the 21st month at 4.6%YoY.
but decelerated from the previous month’s growth of 14.6%YoY, mainly due to the contraction of para rubber (-2.8%YoY) which has contracted in 4 months and fresh, chilled, frozen and dried fruit (- However, many products expanded well, especially rice (+15.3%YoY), sugar (+173.5%YoY), canned and processed seafood (+18.5%YoY), and chilled/frozen/processed chicken ( +125.4%YoY)
Export by market Most are still expanding
US : 27 consecutive month growth at 16.3%YoY, accelerating from the previous month. Major products that expanded were fax machines, telephones, computers. Equipment and components, iron, steel and products and electrical appliances, etc. (Export for the first 8 months grew 17.8%)
China : contracted for the third consecutive month at -20.1%YoY, with the major products contracting included fresh, chilled, frozen and dried fruits, plastic pellets, and automobiles, etc. The products that expanded were rubber products and fresh, chilled and frozen chicken. etc. (Exports for the first 8 months contracted -5.0%)
Japan : Returned to expand in the past 3 months at 6.6%YoY, with the main products expanding include processed chicken, instant oil, fresh, chilled and frozen chicken, automobiles and computers (exports for the first 8 months grew by 1.2%).
EU27 : Expanded for the 4th month at 19.0%YoY, accelerating from the previous month. The main products that expanded were computers. equipment and components Air conditioner and components gems and jewelry, processed chickens, and switchboards and electrical control panels, etc. (exports in the first 8 months grew by 7.5%).
•ASEAN5 : Expanded for the 16th consecutive month at 5.8%YoY, decelerating from the previous month. The main products that expanded were sugar, automobiles, electrical circuits and air conditioners, etc. (exports for the first 8 months grew by 21.8%).
The value of imports in August was at US$ 27,848 million, expanding 21.3%YoY, decelerating from the previous month’s growth of 23.9%YoY due to the continued contraction of vehicle products (-4.5%YoY) and Slower growth of raw materials and semi-finished goods (+13.7%YoY) and fuel goods (+77.4%YoY). However, capital goods (+5.3%YoY) and consumer goods (+10.7%YoY) returned to expand. August’s trade balance was deficit for the fifth straight month at US$4.215 million, with the first eight months’ trade deficit accumulated at US$14.131 million.
Implication:
Krungthai COMPASS expects exports to slow down due to weak global economy In particular, the main markets of the US, Europe and China, as the economy tends to slow down as reflected by the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index. (Manufacturing PMI) in August that has decreased. The prolonged conflict between Russia and Ukraine has resulted in higher energy prices, especially in Europe. Due to drought and a new wave of outbreaks in China, a lockdown was announced in late August. including the US economy which slowed down from the use of strict monetary policy to reduce the heat of the economy The indicator reflects the outlook for Thai exports going forward, which may be affected by slower demand in the main markets.
• Keep an eye on the direction of exports of agricultural products and agro-industry has a better direction. Meanwhile, electronics products tend to adjust in opposite directions. Although the exports of electronics products have grown well since the outbreak of the coronavirus due to the technology trend. But it tends to slow down following the epidemic situation has subsided in many countries, causing the electronics products that are needed during the lockdown to be reduced. This causes the world’s semiconductor orders to decline and may affect exporters of some electronic products. However, exporters of agricultural and agro-industrial products are likely to benefit from the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. The protracted prices of agricultural commodities continued to be high. Including the increase in export taxes on rice of India, a major exporter, will benefit exporters from higher prices.
