“Despite the fears shared in all countries with regard to inflation, the evolution of the prices of basic raw materials, as well as the strong measures taken by several central banks lead us to believe that global inflation would have already reached its peak during the recent summer season”writes the broker in a new note.
For analysts, the gradual restoration of supply chains and the readjustment of certain processing margins might only reduce the rise in prices of finished products, independently of any new decisions to hike rates, decided by the world central banks. .
At the national level, most of the inflation is fueled by the increase in the cost of imported products. “As a result, an increase in Bank Al Maghrib’s key rate seems unlikely to us, especially since the inflation of tradable goods is expected to ease soon and foreign exchange reserves remain solid (342 billion DH at September 9, 2022)»we specify.
On the other hand, an aggressive increase in the key rate during the next BAM board meetings might, in the opinion of Valories Securities, weigh on the government’s next stimulus policies and thus on the prospects for economic growth, in a context of competition between countries of the southern Mediterranean vis-à-vis foreign investment, without however having a significant impact on the evolution of inflation.
