Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, the world’s largest hedge fund, gives a lecture at the ‘Global Economy Big Cycle’ session held at the Jangchung Arena in Seoul on the 22nd. [박형기 기자]“It will be a very difficult year with stagflation sweeping the world over the next 18 months and a political crisis by 2024.” Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, the world’s largest hedge fund, made this prediction in a session on the last day of the 23rd World Knowledge Forum, held right following the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) raised the key interest rate by 0.75 percentage points.
Stagflation is a phenomenon that is accompanied by an increase in prices and a recession in the economy. The venue of the World Knowledge Forum on the 22nd was a success, with audiences including young investors flocking to hear the direction of the global economy and market prospects.
Founder Dalio said in a video session of the ‘Global Economy Big Cycle’ session at Jangchung Arena in Seoul, “Rising interest rates cause weakness in all other assets, including stocks and bonds.” However, as the need for monetary tightening continues to grow, the situation in major currencies around the world will dynamically intertwine and stagflation will continue for the next 18 months.” The founder of Dalio is called ‘Warren Buffett of the 21st century, Steve Jobs of the financial world’ and is a leading hedge fund investor on Wall Street. Bridgewater, which he founded in 1975, is the world’s largest hedge fund with assets of $126.4 billion (regarding 178 trillion won).
New York Life Asset Management’s chief investment officer (CIO) Je-seong Yoon said, “As the US Federal Reserve is expected to raise the key interest rate by up to 125bp (1bp = 0.01 percentage point) by the end of the year, the S&P 500 is heading down to 3,600. “If there is an economic downturn next year, the index might drop by another 10% from here to the 3,200 level,” he predicted. CIO Yoon said, “The won will unconditionally drop to 1,500 won per dollar by the end of this year.” He advised Korean investors to avoid blindly investing in US tech stocks. “Korean investors’ belief in Apple and Tesla is close to religion,” CIO Yoon said.
Mark Mobius, co-founder of Mobius Capital Partners, a global investor who attended the World Knowledge Forum, also predicted that the bear market will continue. “I expect the stock market to fall another 10%,” he said.
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