NYMEX crude oil is expected to drop to $80.02
On Thursday (September 22), international oil prices rose slightly, benefiting from the unstable geopolitical situation and increased demand from China. However, in view of the generally aggressive hawkish stance of global central banks, oil prices continue to be bearish, with NYMEX crude oil expected to drop to $80.02.
At 18:21 Beijing time, NYMEX crude oil futures rose 0.55% to US$83.40/barrel; ICE Brent crude oil futures rose 0.64% to US$89.37/barrel.
Russia on Thursday began pushing for its biggest military recruitment drive since World War II, sparking fears that an escalating war in Ukraine might further damage supply and lead to more wild swings in markets.
According to relevant data provided by brokerages, as of last week, the average operating rate of state-owned refineries in China had climbed to 73.74%, up 2.56% from the end of August. Shandong independent refineries, which account for one-fifth of China’s total refining capacity, also rebounded.
The weakening of downward pressure on the oil market was also due to an increase in U.S. inventories. U.S. EIA crude oil inventories rose by 1.142 million barrels to 430.8 million barrels in the week ended September 16, but the increase was lower than the 2.161 million barrels expected by analysts in a previous survey.
But the aggressive hawkish stance of global central banks is bearish for oil markets. Markets await the imminent announcement of the Bank of England’s new policy, with interest rates expected to rise by at least 0.5 percentage points to curb inflation at a near 40-year high. Oil prices ended lower following the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 75 basis points for the third time in a row overnight and signaled that borrowing costs will continue to rise this year.
The Swiss National Bank raised interest rates by 75 basis points on Thursday, raising the policy rate from -0.25% to 0.50%, ending the eight-year negative interest rate policy, and the interest rate level reached a new high since December 2008. The SNB did not rule out the need to raise policy rates further.
On the daily line, NYMEX crude oil is in a downward iii wave starting from $90.19, and the bottom support looks at the 61.8% target at $80.02. Wave iii is a sub-wave of wave (iii) that started down at $97.66. Wave (iii) is a sub-wave of the downward ((c)) wave that started at $123.68. Wave ((c)) is part of the corrective 4 wave that started at $130.50.
