According to Kommersant, to cover the budget deficit, the government wants to collect regarding 1.4 trillion rubles from raw material exporters. in 2023 by increasing export duties and MET rates. Among other things, it is proposed to increase the export duty on gas to 50%, introduce a duty or its equivalent for LNG exports, as well as raise gas prices within the Russian Federation and then withdraw this money from gas companies through an increase in the severance tax. An increase in the export duty on oil for 2023 and an extension of the adjusted damper for gasoline are also being discussed. The government will consider these measures, which in 2023-2025 can give the budget an additional more than 3 trillion rubles, on September 20.
The government may withdraw almost 3 trillion rubles from Russian oil and gas companies. in the form of additional taxes, according to Kommersant’s interlocutors, who are familiar with the discussion of the issue. Measures to mobilize additional budget revenues, according to Kommersant’s sources, will be discussed on September 20 at the government’s commission on budget projections.
An increase in taxes on the export of gas, oil, coal and fertilizers is being considered (Kommersant wrote regarding the last two ideas on September 14 and 15). The main income is planned to be obtained by increasing the export duty on pipeline gas. According to Kommersant’s information, we are talking regarding the introduction of a differentiated rate – with gas prices above $300 per 1,000 cubic meters, the duty will be increased to 50% compared to the current level of 30%.
In August, Gazprom’s average export price to Europe under long-term spot-linked contracts might be around €236 per MWh, or around $2.8 thousand per 1,000 cubic meters. According to preliminary estimates, due to the increase in export duties, the budget can receive an additional 578 billion rubles. in 2023, and in total in 2023-2025 – 1.23 trillion rubles.
The government is also considering an option to increase the MET rate on gas for all producers. It is assumed that the equivalent of the amount that gas companies will receive from additional indexation of domestic gas tariffs by 3 percentage points in 2023 and 2024 will be withdrawn to the budget.
In fact, we are talking regarding a tax for domestic gas consumers. In 2023, according to Kommersant, the gas tariff is proposed to be increased immediately by 8.5%, in 2024 – by 7%. An increase in the severance tax on gas may bring an additional 28 billion rubles to the budget. in 2023, 100 billion rubles. in 2024 and 150 billion rubles. in 2025 (as tariffs are indexed in the middle of the year).
The government is also seriously discussing for the first time the withdrawal of revenues from LNG exporters, but it is not yet clear in what form, Kommersant sources say. The main option is to introduce an export duty for LNG producers, which might give the budget 200 billion rubles apiece. annually.
Currently, NOVATEK’s Yamal LNG and Gazprom’s Sakhalin-2 projects are exempt from export duties and, in fact, from MET (Yamal LNG has a long-term MET exemption). The key problem is that both the production sharing agreement for Sakhalin-2 and the intergovernmental agreement between Russia and China on Yamal LNG (the Chinese CNPC and the Silk Road Fund in the project shareholders) prohibit the worsening of tax regimes. NOVATEK and the Finance Ministry did not respond to Kommersant, while Gazprom declined to comment.
The oil industry will also not avoid seizures. The Ministry of Finance proposes to increase the export duty on oil in 2023 by regarding one and a half times (due to an increase in the coefficient in the duty formula from 0.167 to 0.25), which might give regarding 240 billion rubles. The effect of the increased coefficient is one year, since from 2024 the export duty will be reset to zero as part of the tax maneuver. It is also proposed to extend the effect of the adjusted damper for gasoline, which came into operation in September and is calculated until the end of the year, for 2023–2025, which will provide another approximately 190 billion rubles. in year.
Together with the export duty on coal and fertilizers, all these proposals can bring the budget 1.4 trillion rubles in 2023. additional income, and in general for the three-year period – 3.15 trillion rubles. The main donor is Gazprom, which this year will pay 1.2 trillion rubles anyway. additional severance tax, as well as pay another 600 billion rubles. to the budget in the form of interim dividends for 2022.
Revision of the terms of taxation for Sakhalin-2 is possible upon agreement with the participants in the PSA, says Sergey Kondratiev, deputy head of the economic department of the Institute of Energy and Finance. “It is quite possible that a compromise option will be chosen now – the Sakhalin-2 participants will agree to increase taxes, and in return they will be offered an extension of the PSA or the inclusion of additional fields in the PSA. Such a scheme was used, for example, in Kazakhstan,” he says. As for the Yamal LNG project, it is quite possible that the Russian side, in order to circumvent the norms of the intergovernmental agreement, will have to change the tax regime, for example, the introduction of an excise tax on LNG, Mr. Kondratyev believes.
The unscheduled withdrawals for gas companies may be partly justified by their really high earnings from the current increase in export prices. However, the gas sector, especially Gazprom, faces the medium-term challenge of reorienting exports to Asia once morest the background of the actual loss of the European market, which will require investments of trillions of rubles.
