According to economist Konstantin Selyanin, most experts agree that the rate will be reduced decisively – to 7.5% or to 7.25%. Some even say that the value of the rate will be dropped immediately to 7%.
“I believe that there are no reasons for a sharp reduction in the rate – I think that it will drop to no more than 7.5%,” says Konstantin Selyanin. – If we talk regarding the conditions and prerequisites for the decline, then first of all, experts point out two reasons. The first is deflation, which has been observed for 3.5 months. Although it is only 1.5% and it is rather difficult to call it noticeable, but this is a reaction to the rise in prices for goods in March-April. Second, to revive the economy, it is important to have a lower rate as an incentive. This will expand the lending of the same mortgage: the cheaper it is, the more it is taken. This is a reason for lowering the rate, since the Russian economy in the second quarter did not collapse sharply, as expected – by 10-15 percent, but fell by 4.1%. Comparable to what it was during the pandemic, even better.
