6000 km2 freed. L’Ukraine announced resounding military successes on Monday, saying it reached the Russian border and recaptured the equivalent of seven times the area of kyiv in a month. So is the conflict shifting? Should we believe in a victory for Ukraine? What are the possible consequences in terms of energy? QR l’actu took stock of these questions with Nicolas Gosset, researcher at the Royal Defense Institute.
Victory for Ukraine?
Ukraine might win the war. A path indeed seems to be emerging, but this option must be taken with great caution, says Nicolas Gosset. “There is indeed an important turning point in this conflict but we will have to see if it is really definitive in the weeks to come with a withdrawal from the Donbass front but we are not there yet.“.
Putin’s reaction?
With these Ukrainian victories, should we fear a reaction of pride from Vladimir Putin? In any case, Nicolas Gosset rules out a nuclear-type reaction. “In my view, the nuclear weapon is above all declaratory and aims to try to dissuade Westerners from supporting Ukraine. Now the reactions can take other forms. The Russian arsenal remains very powerful and might resort to other weapons as some Russian propagandists claim.“.
What impact on the ground?
These Ukrainian victories are likely to cause quite a few problems for Russia, explains Nicolas Gosset: “The Ukrainians have cut Russian supply lines but there is also the problem of Russian arms production because of the sanctions. European sanctions complicate the Russian supply of chips or even semiconductors. Besides, we see very few guided missile launches lately. The Russian army is facing a difficulty of production but also of delivery on the ground“.
Diplomatic solutions?
There have been attempts at peaceful settlements of the conflict, specifies Nicolas Gosset with President Macron, Chancellor Scholtz, who went to Moscow with a plea of inadmissibility and an inability to move the file forward. “From the moment when Russia poses as key to the negotiation a request for capitulation of Ukraine, it is difficult to still envisage a healthy process of negotiation. For there to be negotiations in the future, and there will be, another balance of power is needed.“