And “responsibility budget”which allows both “protect the French” in the face of the effects of inflation and the energy crisis, to maintain public finances, and to respect the economic policy ambitions of the President of the Republic Emmanuel Macron: this is the thorny roadmap that has begun to be rolled out Bruno Le Maire and Gabriel Attal, Tuesday September 13, with a view to preparing the finance bill (PLF) for 2023. The Minister of the Economy and his counterpart delegated to public accounts, who will present the draft text to the council ministers on September 26, were to send Wednesday to the High Council of Public Finances the main economic assumptions on which it is built.
While the main lines of this first budget of the new mandate seemed to be taking shape this summer, the last few weeks have turned everything upside down. New spike in energy prices amid war in Ukrainespread of food price inflation, threat of recession in Germany and China, fear of the indirect effects of monetary policy tightening on the economy: “the economic situation is characterized by strong European and international tensions”had to admit Bruno Le Maire, while repeating, as he has done since the start of the school year, that “France resists” and that it is not a question of “give in to catastrophism”.
Result: France’s growth will expect at least 2.5% this year, as expected, but Bercy has on the other hand been forced to lower its target for 2023, until then at + 1.4%. The increase in gross domestic product (GDP) is only expected to be 1% next year, while inflation should remain high at least until February, indicated the Minister of the Economy. It is still forecast at + 4.2% in 2023, and + 5.3% this year (in July, the government was only counting on 5%).
“This prediction [de 1 % de croissance du PIB] suppose we manage to spend the winter in acceptable conditions. This is why we have anticipated the implementation of sobriety measures, load shedding or the relaunch of nuclear production”, we justify in Bercy. Public debt is expected to reach 111.5% of GDP in 2022 and 111.2% next year, according to ministry projections.
“Slow down the tax cut”
How, under these conditions, to meet the public finance objectives set by the executive, and in particular the 5% public deficit in 2023, a prelude to a return to the 3% at the end of the five-year term promised by the head of the State ?
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