A liver cancer risk prediction model following hepatitis B is cured was developed by Korean medical staff.
The research team led by Professor Jeongwon Jang (Gastroenterology, Corresponding author) of Catholic University of Korea Seoul St. Mary’s Hospital and Professor Yang Hyung (Gastroenterology, first author) of Eunpyeong St. Mary’s Hospital conducted a research team on the 13th “Hepatitis B surface antigen loss prediction model for the risk of liver cancer worldwide” developed for the first time.”
Although the prevalence of hepatitis B in Korea is decreasing compared to the past due to the hepatitis B vaccination program, hepatitis B is still an important cause of hepatocellular carcinoma (liver cancer) in Korea. The loss of the hepatitis B surface antigen is called a ‘functional cure for hepatitis B’.
Seoul St. Mary’s Hospital Professor Jang Jeong-won (left) and Eunpyeong St. Mary’s Hospital Professor Yang Hyeon
The research team studied a total of 1,443 chronic hepatitis B patients who had lost the hepatitis B surface antigen, closely followed at a hospital affiliated with the Catholic Medical Center, for up to 30 years and studied using a large-long-term cohort (specific research group).
As a result, the age at the time of hepatitis B surface antigen loss, the presence or absence of liver cirrhosis, excessive drinking (more than 2 drinks a day for men and more than 1 drink a day for women), and a family history of hepatocellular carcinoma led to the occurrence of liver cancer even following hepatitis B surface antigen loss. revealed to be a risk factor for
The research team developed a model for predicting the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma using these four risk factors, and the 5-year, 10-year, and 15-year predictive values evaluated by the time-dependent ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristic) curve were 0.799, 0.835, and 0.817, respectively. reported that the predictability was excellent. The ROC curve is a performance evaluation index, and when the ROC curve area is 0.8 or more, it is evaluated as a predictive model with excellent performance. It was also effective in internal verification to confirm the accuracy of prediction.
According to related academic circles, hepatitis B is the most important risk factor for liver cancer in Korea and accounts for regarding 60-70% of all liver cancer patients. In Korea, regarding 2.5 to 3% of the total population are carriers of the hepatitis B virus. About 20% of chronically infected patients with hepatitis B virus for more than 6 months progress to cirrhosis. In addition, it is known that hepatitis B virus carriers have regarding 100 times higher risk of developing liver cancer than normal people.
Professor Yang said, “This study is meaningful in that it revealed that liver cancer can occur even following hepatitis B is cured and which patients should be closely followed. It is important not to miss the liver cancer monitoring test if you have a liver cancer, have a family history of liver cancer, drink a lot, or are elderly.”
Professor Jang evaluated, “This model using patient health information, which can be easily obtained through regular examinations, is expected to contribute to the development of guides for the appropriate clinical management methods for patients who have been cured of hepatitis B in the future.” . The results of this study were published in the September issue of the international scientific journal ‘Journal of Hepatology’.
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