The President of the Republic, Michel Aoun, preserves the options that he can make in the event the presidential position becomes vacant, although he realizes, as a political source tells Asharq Al-Awsat, that his opponents are counting the remaining days of his term and have begun to tighten the siege on him, and he will not find anyone to match his choices unless He received the green light from his ally, “Hezbollah”, which does not like to get involved in an adventure that might backfire on it because the international community will take the initiative to hold it responsible for dragging the country into a vacuum that leads it into chaos and accusing it of providing political cover for a president who has only 50 days left in his term.
The political source points out that President Aoun’s resort to forming a government similar to the military government he headed following the end of President Amin Gemayel’s term will face popular and political resistance once morest the background of his violation of the constitution.
He asserts that President Aoun, although a number of members of his political team exaggerate that he will not leave Baabda until following he has formed an alternative government to the caretaker government, he is aware, on the other hand, that the constitution does not allow him to issue decrees to form the government without the signature of the president charged with forming it.
The same source says that President Aoun cannot turn his back on the constitution and act, which allows him to return to the old constitution, which gives the President of the Republic the power to appoint ministers and choose a prime minister from among them. Who named Mikati to form the new government.
President Aoun warns once morest confiscating the powers of the Parliament, which named Mikati to take over as prime minister, especially since his role is limited to conducting binding parliamentary consultations to nominate him, and it is up to him to announce the results. In other words, President Aoun’s role in this case is limited to recording the results of parliamentary consultations, in preparation for announcing the name of the prime minister charged with forming the government.
The source calls on President Aoun to stop his stubbornness to pass the presidential election at the lowest cost to the country. The descriptions are complete, and he believes that President Aoun’s escape forward will hit a dead end.
President Aoun, by his insistence on forming a government, has committed an ill-considered stunt and cannot recall what the American envoy Richard Murphy said by placing Lebanon in front of two options, Mikhail Daher as president or chaos, provided that he withdraws his words to the current situation that allows him to crowd the Lebanese, either accepting his terms or the alternative. The country is plunged into chaos, open to all possibilities.
Therefore, the current circumstances differ from those that were behind the overthrow of the Murphy-Hafez al-Assad agreement at the time, because it was brought down under the political blows of the striking force that consisted of President Gemayel, the “Lebanese Forces” party and the Maronite Church, in addition to President Aoun, who was at the head of the institution. The military, while the country suffers sectarian and sectarian division due to the continuing civil war.
Today, as the political source says, Aoun is fighting alone and entering into a clash with the main forces in the country, with the exception of Hezbollah, which is unlikely to risk its political capital in a confrontation that will increase the sectarian tension between Sunnis and Shiites due to the feeling of the Sunni component that its first position in the state is under threat. To an attack targeting the prime minister, and that there are those who take advantage of the vacuum caused by the reluctance of his references to run for parliamentary elections.
Therefore, Hezbollah has no interest in entering into a clash with the Sunni street on behalf of its ally President Aoun and his heir Basil, because it will push towards raising the level of sectarian and sectarian tension, and thus distance itself from spending surplus power in a battle that will be lost in advance, even if he restores consideration to his ally President Aoun. Although floating without him difficulties.
But if President Aoun initiates a political “shock” of another kind by forming a military government, the answer will come in advance of the army leadership’s refusal to involve it in an internal conflict in light of the stalemate in front of the political team affiliated with Aoun, while the military institution, along with the security forces, constitutes the safety valve to preserve To stabilize and cut the road for those trying to take the country to the deadly unknown.
