Claire Shukr – Nidaa Al Watan
The presidential vacancy is at the door. The country has entered the constitutional deadline that allows the assembly of the House of Representatives and the election of a new president to succeed President Michel Aoun. However, Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri is currently diverting attention from the presidential election, limiting his focus to the legislative issue, following he called for a plenary session on September 14, 15 and 16 to study and approve the draft budget for 2022.
Thus, the political forces are dealing with the October 31 date as open to scenarios, the best of which are bitter, that will restore the scene of the void to the Baabda Palace amid a constitutional debate, paving the way for the Aounists over the ability of the caretaker government to inherit the powers of the presidency.
All the statements and insinuations issued by the President of the Republic and the head of the “Free Patriotic Movement” Gebran Bassil Chi that this team will seek to surround the caretaker government in the event that the authorship outlets are blocked, and it is destined to inherit the signature of the President of the Republic. What is meant by this is a political encirclement through the transition of the Aoun group to the comprehensive opposition, to paralyze the movement of the government, which is already constitutionally amputated, and obstruct the work of its ministers.
In fact, there are those who say that the caretaker prime minister, Najib Mikati, may fall into the trap he set for the Aoun team, as he will be left alone on the land of hell to catch the ball of collapse, which will become even more in flames in a time of presidential vacancy and paralysis that will eat the green and dry institutions.
They explain by noting that Mikati was betting on some international oxygen to provide his government with economic revival, which might enhance his political presence and make him the only candidate to head the first era government. As the Ukrainian war turns the tables upside down. The French are preoccupied with their concerns. Neither the agreement with the IMF is complete, nor the Egyptian gas landed in the tanks of the Lebanese production plants, nor the Jordanian electricity is available, nor is there an agreement on the recovery plan and all its monetary and economic aspects…
In fact, it is the same chaos that threatens Lebanon’s stability since the outbreak of the crisis, and is likely to lead to further deterioration and explosion. The belief was prevalent, between Berri and Mikati in particular, that the Aounist faction would acquiesce in the prime minister’s conditions. That is why the prime minister-designate played the game of buying time until the date of September 1st, to seize the ball at that time and launch the presidential battle, even if only politically, and the project to form a new government would fall.
But President Michel Aoun is still the same General Michel Aoun. Breaking it is not easy. In an interview yesterday, he revealed his explicit desire “to include 6 political ministers of state in the current government so that it acquires political immunity that is very necessary to face the possibility of vacancy, because the pure technocratic government as it is now is unable to assume the tasks of the President of the Republic,” and that the designated prime minister He informed him of his agreement to vaccinate the government with a political minister before he changed his mind, at Berri’s request.
Supporters of the idea of politically expanding the government say that handing over the powers of the presidency to the caretaker government will establish a constitutional precedent that would open the door to a sectarian problem in the country with ominous consequences. According to them, this government lacks legitimacy, and has gained its confidence from a House of Representatives that no longer exists, and the powers of the President of the Republic, which were waived in the National Accord Document in favor of a ministerial representation representing the Christian presidency, suffers from a fundamental flaw because it is impossible to control the technocratic ministers who represent the Presidency of the Republic. , in contrast to the representation of the Sunni and Shiite components. Hence the demand for direct political partnership.
For this reason, they say that President Aoun’s exit from the palace “over a problem” will push him to settle his accounts with his opponents in the street, and he will throw the whole fireball into Mikati’s arms by moving to the fierce opposition and blocking any treatment or patching that Mikati may take as a way to cut Time following the crisis reached serious consequences.
According to them, the most prominent title of the Aounists’ campaign in the street will be: the capture of the trio, Nabih Berri – Najib Mikati – Walid Jumblatt in the government, especially since the Speaker of the Council is promoting the idea of not repeating the experience of the “government of presidents” headed by Tammam Salam during the last presidential vacancy, which means that he seeks to block the road In front of the scenario of all ministers signing the decrees, the signatures of the prime minister, the finance minister and the concerned minister are satisfied. It is a possibility that the Al-Awni team will not swallow, and will make it his case in the next stage.
Accordingly, observers indicate that Mikati feels the heat of the situation, especially if things go to further deterioration and collapse, while the chances of completing the presidential elections on time are decreasing day by day. For this, he seeks to activate opportunities for authorship by floating his government. But without achieving this, President Aoun set conditions following it became clear that the plan to visit him in “Beit Laik” did not work, and he is still on his position: a political vaccination…otherwise, the temple should fall over everyone’s heads.
