‘Bad news is rather good news’ After the employment data released, the market predicted that the Fed would adjust the rate of rate hikes. The outlook for a 75BP rate hike from 75% on September 1 is now significantly reduced to 57%. The next FOMC meeting will be held in 18 days, on September 21st.
The virtual asset market fell following the release of the employment data. At 4:30 PM on September 3rd, the price of Bitcoin is trading at $19,992, down 0.96% from the previous day. During the same period, the total market cap of cryptocurrencies fell by 0.8% and the market cap of altcoins fell by 0.6%.
The stock market was not spared the shock either. The S&P 500 fell 1.1% and the Nasdaq fell 1.3%. Gold futures rose 0.8%, demonstrating an increase in the market’s demand for safe-haven investments.
The market outlook is diverging. Both macroeconomics and cryptocurrencies have both positive and negative prospects. Where will the market flow go? Block Media has compiled major news and coin issues to watch out for this week.
#“Bad news is good news” Investor sentiment will recover as interest rate hikes slow, pay attention to economic indicators
“Bad news is good news.” This is a statement added by JP Morgan in its economic outlook. Analysts say the negative economic data will put the brakes on the Fed’s rate hike relay, and that the pace of rate hikes will slow down and the stock price will continue to rise.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said the Fed will continue to raise rates until inflation is caught. Can negative economic indicators put the brakes on the rate hike relay? The release of the employment data showed both improvement and deterioration. Now is the time to pay attention to the subsequent release of economic indicators.
JP Morgan: Bad news is good news… Next month is the Fed’s last giant step.”
[8월 고용 : 전문가 코멘트] “It was like a prescription given by an inflation specialist”
US Consumer Confidence Index Highest in 3 Months in August… economic optimism
“The US economic data is good… Fed strengthens justification for rate hike
“Why is the Fed blaming the labor market? Are you not responsible?”
#Even with the collapse of the asset market, the outlook for further declines continues, is there a new floor below the bottom?
The downtrend in 2022 was not limited to the virtual asset market. The Nasdaq is down 27% from its all-year highs, and the S&P 500 is down 19% from its all-year highs. Even with such a market crash, there is still an analysis that a further decline is expected.
The stock market bubble hasn’t burst yet, and the Fed’s failure to contain the inflation crisis suggests a recession is coming. The correlation between virtual assets and the technology stock market is still high. This is the reason why macroeconomic and stock market issues cannot be ignored in virtual asset investment.
“The Fed Can’t Fix Fiscal Inflation” – Jackson Hall Papers
Wall Street warns that inflation won’t be held until 2024 and an all-time recession will occur
Jeremy Grantham: The stock bubble hasn’t burst yet
“Sell big tech stocks, Bitcoin, etc… Fed overestimates U.S. economy” – JP Morgan’s Kelly
#Staggered Bitcoin and altcoin trends, decoupling between bits and alts
The bitcoin and altcoin markets have shown different moves this week. While Bitcoin is down 0.6% from a week ago, the altcoin market is up 2.4% from a week ago. It is slightly different from the past when Bitcoin, the ‘leader’ of the cryptocurrency ecosystem, led the market uptrend.
Market analysis of Bitcoin investment prospects was also divided. There is a positive outlook that “the current price does not reflect the network and technology development, so the price is expected to rise” and a negative outlook that “an additional decline is expected due to weakened investment sentiment and a negative economic outlook”.
“Bitcoin’s Incomprehensible Low Price Level, Explosive Over Time” – Sampson Mow
Bitcoin may hit bottom… Shocked by Powell’s speech, but recovered $20K – Bloomberg
Global trust in cryptocurrencies remains despite ‘Crypto Winter’ – Bitstamp Research
“The Next Bitcoin Blast, Only Two Years Left” – Bloomberg Analyst
[비트코인 부정 전망]
On-chain activity weakens following Bitcoin price plunges… Key Indicators DowntrendBitcoin decline betting hits all-time high… Reflecting weakening market mood
Increasing inflow of bitcoin exchanges … Potential Selling Volume Increase
Cryptocurrency buying momentum weakens… Defensive Rotation of Investors – BofA
# Concentrated virtual asset market, stock market correlation is still high… Is it possible to realize decentralized value?
The cryptocurrency market is moving along with the legacy asset market. Ethereum has a 90% correlation with the S&P 500, and virtual asset ETFs and Metaverse ETFs also have a high correlation. It means that the virtual asset market is not moving forward due to the legacy asset market and macro economy trend.
The concentration of certain cryptocurrencies in the virtual asset market value is also noteworthy. 75% of the virtual asset market cap comes from the top 5 cryptocurrencies. Just as the collapse of Terra had a huge impact on the market, if the system of these cryptocurrencies collapses, can the market continue?
JP Morgan Blockchain CEO: “Most cryptocurrencies are garbage”
NFT trading volume plunged 97% from May high… Users tripled compared to the previous year
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