Beware of crazy promises!
That the leaders of the opposition parties multiply the electoral promises in order to court the voters, it is fair game. Especially in this election campaign where their chances of taking power are almost nil, if we are to believe the polls.
But that the outgoing Prime Minister, François Legault, is even more “generous” than his opponents, that goes beyond understanding. He is very likely to put his feet in the dishes.
Why ? Because he, because of his very strong chances of staying in power, should be extremely cautious regarding the negative impact that costly election promises can have on the financial health of the Quebec government.
I would like to believe that the province’s public finances are in better shape than its finance minister, Eric Girard, implied when he presented his budget for the current fiscal year last March.
Thanks to an unexpected surplus in tax revenue, it is now expected, according to the Pre-election Report on the State of Public Finances, that the Quebec government would declare cumulative budget surpluses of $7.6 billion over the three fiscal years from 2022-23 to 2025-26. (We are talking here regarding surpluses before transfer of money to the Generations Fund.)
Back to big deficits
With the panoply of electoral promises, let us forget the budgetary surpluses forecast in the Pre-Election Report. The Government of Quebec will fall back into the hole.
The election campaign had barely begun when François Legault himself set the tone by launching into the unveiling of costly election promises that would quickly “burn” these $7.6 billion in budget surpluses over three years.
As a reminder, here are the main “electoral gifts” that François Legault, the leader of the caquistes, unveiled in this first election week.
- 1% reduction in the first two tax brackets as of 2023: tax relief of $7.4 billion over 4 years.
- Payment by the end of the year of an amount of $600 to people earning less than $50,000 and an amount of $400 to those earning between $50,000 and $100,000: a gift of 3 $.5 billion.
- Enhancement of support for seniors aged 70 and over by raising it from $411 to a maximum amount of $2,000: a commitment of $1.6 billion.
- Creation of a Blue Fund: $650 million.
- One subsidized child care space for every child: $1.4 billion.
- Construction of 11,700 social and affordable housing units, and subsidy of 7,200 more households through the Rent Supplement Program: a bill of $1.8 billion.
- Training and recruitment of 660 doctors and 5,000 health professionals: $400 million.
- Additional envelope for the renovation of 600 schools: $2 billion.
- Capping all government rate increases to 3% or less: $2.2 billion.
$21 billion in pledges
The tally for Francois Legault’s campaign promises so far stands at $21 billion.
And to think that he still has four weeks of electoral campaign to announce other electoral promises.
With the caquiste slogan “CONTINUONS”, we will have understood that with Legault “ The sky is the limit »
Where will he get the money?
On October 4, the day following his highly probable re-election, where will François Legault find the tens of billions of dollars to finance his expensive electoral promises?
After completely “burning” the projected surpluses of $7.6 billion over three years, he will be faced with three choices:
1. Declare heavy deficits in the next term;
2. Renounce the entry into force of certain electoral promises;
3. Dip into the pot of the Generations Fund to finance the said promises.
If François Legault uses the money accumulated in the Generations Fund to pay for his election promises, this will have the impact of increasing the government debt by the same amount.
If this were the case, it is our young people and future generations who will have to foot the bill. Same thing with the heavy deficits related to the crazy promises of the current election campaign.
