The battle in Iraq is not related to the future of Muqtada al-Sadr alone, but rather to the future of Iraq itself, because preventing the winner in the parliamentary elections from forming a government, triggered a series of political events and developments that led to the decision being placed in the hands of the street, and it was chaos, which the Lebanese street followed with remarkable interest, as the picture almost Very similar to the picture of the collapse in Iraq.
But the writer and political analyst, Nabil Boumansef, rules out the withdrawal of the Iraqi street equation from the Lebanese street, considering that “there are many similarities, but the Lebanese people do not resemble the Iraqi people in the way they deal with events, although the similarity between the two countries is limited to their presence on the line of crises. Mainly because of Iran’s influence.
The writer Boumansef told Lebanon Debate that the Iranians play in the same space in Lebanon and Iraq, but Iraq’s political structure is different from that of Lebanon, and there is no personality in Lebanon that resembles Muqtada al-Sadr’s, and the division between the Shiites is vertical and there is a balance of power and conflict between Shiite leaders once morest the backdrop of the alliance with Iran. On the other hand, the Shiite reality differs in Lebanon from that in Iraq, and anti-Iran includes several sects, but not the Shiite community, where the Shiite duo summarizes the situation in this arena.
It is too early to release any predictions or readings related to what happened in Iraq in the past two days, especially to clarify whether the picture is related to what is happening in the negotiations on the Iranian nuclear file, or it is an early reflection of what will happen following the signing of the agreement. Clear indications of what will happen to the situation, because if the demonstrations return to the street once more, this means that the Iraqi arena is heading to a dangerous place, especially since what happened coincided with a movement of the Yemeni front, and therefore the region will be in front of a “domino” related to the nuclear file, The situation will move in many arenas, and then we must fear for Lebanon, because the effects of this situation are inevitable, but it is not clear how the translation of these developments will be, even though these arenas are considered in the same axis.
Consequently, Boumonsef asserts, that Iran is not facing a difficult situation in the negotiations over its nuclear program, indicative of the fear among all the forces opposed to this agreement that Washington has gone too far in conceding to Iran, but what happened in Iraq comes in a different context, because supporters of Al-Sadr are moving once morest Iranian influence, which means that Iran is not comfortable in Iraq.
As for the Lebanese scene, Bou Monsef affirms that the infection of Iraq will not infect Lebanon, which is facing a collapse in all fields, and it is at the gates of presidential entitlement, and no internal team is able to turn the table on everyone, because the strongest player today is “Hezbollah”, because it is armed. However, he deals wisely with the internal situation, and it is important that he also deals with the file of demarcation.
