This week’s trading notes: The US August non-farm payrolls report will be released soon, and China’s August official manufacturing, non-manufacturing and composite purchasing managers’ index (PMI), and US ISM reports will be released one following another. at the same time,EURThe consumer price index (CPI) in August will also be announced, and some US companies and Chinese stocks will announce their earnings this week, including Hewlett-Packard (HPQ-US), HPE Technology ( )HPQ-US), Broadcom (AVGO-US), Baidu (BIDU-US)(9888-HK) etc., while BYD (002594-CN) will announce the first half of the report card.
This week’s trading notes (0829-0902)
1. US non-farm payrolls report for August
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated his hawkish stance in a speech at the annual meeting of global central banks in Jackson Hole on Friday, saying high interest rates will continue for some time and warning once morest historical experience. Easing policy early, even if short-term inflation data improves, it does not mean that inflation is really showing signs of falling, and the pace of interest rate hikes will not stop until there is a definite signal of decline.
Although inflation has shown signs of cooling recently, the data is still far above the Fed’s target level, and the future outlook is still not too optimistic. At the same time, the US job market is still strong. If the August non-farm payrolls report is still solid, it may increase the confidence of the Fed to raise interest rates aggressively. The market expects non-farm payrolls to increase by 290,000 in August from 528,000 in July.
In addition, the ADP employment report, known as the “small non-agricultural” report for nearly two months, will be released this Thursday (September 1) following adjusting the calculation model. On the same day, the United States received unemployment benefits at the beginning of last week. The number will also be released, the number of people receiving unemployment benefits at the beginning of the previous week has fallen for two consecutive weeks, indicating that the labor market is still quite good.
2. U.S.-China manufacturing boom
China will release the official manufacturing, non-manufacturing and composite PMIs for August, which will provide a glimpse into the reality of China’s economic growth. Previously, in order to boost the domestic weak economy, China spent a lot of money and launched a package of stimulus measures. Chinese technology stocks such as Alibaba (BABA-US), JD.com (JD-US), Baidu (BIDU-US) is expected to benefit from the rise in stock prices last week. In addition, China’s electric vehicle stocks have also experienced rain and rain. NIO (NIO-US), ideal car (LI-US), Xiaopeng Motors (XPEV-US) shares rose together.
U.S. business activities are sluggish, and the ISM manufacturing index released in July fell to 52.8. Although higher than the expected 52, it was still lower than the 53 in June. It has declined for two consecutive months and continued to hit a new low since June 2020. , the ISM manufacturing index, which will be released on Thursday, is expected to be slightly lower than the previous value at 52.6.
3. EURDistrict CPI
EURThe district will announce the preliminary value of the consumer price index (CPI) in August on Wednesday (31st), which is expected to be 9% and the previous value of 8.9%. Data last week showed thatEURThe regional composite PMI has been below the line of prosperity and decline for two consecutive months, the economic sentiment continues to decline, the fear of recession intensifies, and the future path of the European Central Bank (ECB) to raise interest rates will be more difficult, whileEURIt fell to a fresh 20-year low once morest the dollar last week.
on the other hand,EURThe district’s preliminary August consumer confidence index unexpectedly rebounded but remained below levels during the coronavirus pandemic, as rising living costs weighed on households and energy shortages hit economic activity.
