The energy crisis has thrown Italy into a new financial crisis, especially given the country’s dependence on Russian gas imports.
Investors also consider Italy among the countries most vulnerable to the European Central Bank’s decision to scrap stimulus programs by raising interest rates and halting bond purchases that have boosted the country’s huge debt market.
Italian bonds were sold off in recent weeks as investors responded to heightened uncertainty, and the yield on Italy’s 10-year debt rose to 3.7%; This increased the gap to 2.3 percentage points from 1.37 percentage points at the beginning of the year.
Meanwhile, Rome’s energy crisis coincided with the collapse of a period of relative political calm in the country – which began with the appointment of Mario Draghi as prime minister in February 2021 – in July of this year, following the collapse of his national unity government following the withdrawal of Three parties in the coalition government supported his government.
Data from S&P Market Intelligence, published by the British Financial Times, showed that the bearish conditions of hedge funds in relation to Italian government bonds reached their highest level since January 2008. It reached more than 39 billion euros in the current month.
Moody’s lowered Italy’s outlook from “stable” to “negative”.
Italy’s sovereign rating was confirmed at Baa3.
Mark Dowding, chief investment officer at Blue Bay Asset Management, a $106 billion fund, told the British newspaper that Italy had been hit hard by the gas crisis and that the political environment was certainly not helpful.
Hedge funds are reacting to the impact of the energy crisis, which the International Monetary Fund says might weigh on Italy’s GDP by 5% in the event of a Russian gas embargo.
Another issue is the implementation of generic domain name registry reforms, which, if delayed, might jeopardize more than €200 billion in the stimulus fund.
Outgoing Prime Minister Mario Draghi also spoke at the “Rimini meeting” regarding the risks Italy will face in the coming months.
He stated that “national credibility must go hand in hand with international credibility.”
The former European Central Bank chief stressed that the disbursement of European funds for economic recovery depends on “the evaluation of the plan and its implementation by the European Commission”.
Italian Bonds
The Eurosystem owns regarding 30% of Italian bonds, compared to 5% in 2014, before the implementation of the European Central Bank’s quantitative easing programmes.
Local banks and local investors own 40%, while non-residents own only 30%, compared to regarding 50% in 2009 and 40% in 2014.
The 10-year bond yielded 3.59% last Thursday in the secondary market, compared to 0.6% at the end of August 2021.
This was also helped by the general increase in government bonds due to monetary policy and inflation, which resulted in German Federal Reserve bonds yielding a positive yield once more following several years. The range has expanded from 90 basis points last year to 250 basis points today.
classification
Rating agency ScopeRating, which rates Italian government bonds BBB+, is concerned regarding “increasing political uncertainty, exacerbated by the recent resignation of the national unity government led by Mario Draghi.
This might lead to a prolonged political vacuum that prevents the implementation of the reforms on which the NGEU funds depend and the utilization of the facilities of the International Trade Commission.”
Scope explains that public accounts show “high public debt of regarding 145-150% of GDP” and “a high annual financing gap, including coverage of high utility bills, which range from 25-30% of GDP”.
Mario Draghi heads the caretaker government until snap elections in September following his coalition disintegrated last month.
Early elections are expected to increase uncertainty.
The credit quality in Italy given by Moody’s “Baa3” credit rating, analysts at the global rating agency Sarah Carlson and Alejandro Olivo wrote, “Italy is under pressure from the increased risks facing the government, and may hinder the implementation of structural reforms, including those in the recovery plan.” patriotism and resilience in Italy.
One big hedge fund investor said Italy looked like the country most exposed to deteriorating economic conditions, adding that such bets were now widespread, with many managers playing the spread between German and Italian bonds.
Michael Hintz, founder of the hedge fund CQS, was among those who took advantage of bets once morest Italian bonds earlier this year, according to documents seen by the Financial Times. CQS declined to comment.