A dark future

A very terrible alchemy seems to link climate change and infectious diseases according to some recent studies. This discovery comes as the world recovers as best it can from the Covid-19 crisis, and as several countries put in place measures once morest monkeypox.

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58% of diseases aggravated by climate change?

Could 58% of known infectious diseases see their effects increased tenfold by natural disasters such as floods or heat waves? In any case, this is what a study published in the journal “Nature Climate Change” seems to reveal.

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Malaria, cholera, and many more…

According to the research of the makers of this article, they found that 218 of the 375 infectious diseases known to man might be aggravated by extreme climatic conditions. They came to this conclusion by reviewing the scientific literature on this subject. Some of these diseases are well known to the general public: malaria, hantavirus, cholera and anthrax.

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Asthma and allergies too!

Other types of human diseases than infectious diseases seem to be affected by the problem, according to the researchers. Asthma, allergy, and even diseases related to animal bites… Who knows how many diseases might be affected?

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Some diseases seem weakened

If they discovered 223 diseases aggravated by extreme climates, the opposite also seems to be true: some diseases would be weakened by climate change.

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The rain sends the sick home…

Covid-19, for example, might be one of those diseases affected by climatic conditions. By heavy rainfall to be exact. Indeed, during heavy rains, people stay locked up in their homes, far from each other, and do not spread the virus.

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… but gets the mosquitoes out

But sometimes, heavy rainfall, especially during floods and floods, causes an increase in the population by creating an ideal habitat for mosquitoes.

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Le Chikungunya

Camilo Mora, lead author of the study, uses his personal case to illustrate this phenomenon: following a flood at his home in Colombia, he contracted Chikungunya, a virus transmitted by mosquito bites. He suffered the effects for years in the form of joint pain.

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Diseases and climatic conditions, an old duo

This study only demonstrates the degree of influence of climate on health, even though medicine has been familiar with the disease-climate relationship since the time of Hippocrates.

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Diseases change with climate

Study co-author Dr. Jonathan Patz, director of the Global Health Institute at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, said: “If the climate changes, the risk of all these diseases changes with it.”

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Terrifying Discoveries

Dr. Carlos del Rio, an infectious disease specialist at Emory University, meanwhile, made this alarming observation: “The results of this study are terrifying and illustrate the enormous consequences of climate change on human pathogens”.

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Unity is strength

Professor del Rio added: “Those of us who work in infectious disease and microbiology must make climate change a top priority, and we must all work together to prevent what will undoubtedly be , a catastrophe resulting from climate change”.

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Mere speculation?

However, the study is not used to predict future cases, according to the study’s lead author, Camilo Mora, a climate data analyst at the University of Hawaii. “There’s no speculation here whatsoever. These are things that have happened before,” he said.

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Reservations regarding this study

The methods used for the study and the conclusions drawn from them, however, come with strong caveats, from Kristie Ebi, a longtime climate and public health expert at the University of Washington. .

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Correlation does not mean causation

“Correlation is not causation,” Ebi told CNBC. “The authors did not discuss how the climate risks examined have changed over the study period and the extent to which any change has been attributed to climate change.”

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A warning regarding the future

The study does, however, serve as a good warning regarding present and future climate and health risks, according to Dr. Aaron Bernstein, acting director of the Center for Climate, Health and the Global Environment at the Harvard School of Public Health, and three other independent experts.

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A part of the mystery remains…

“This study underscores how climate change may pipe the dice to favor unwanted infectious surprises. But of course, it only captures what we already know and what is still unknown regarding pathogens might turn out even more compelling,” Bernstein told CNBC.

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A climate point of no return

As extreme weather events continue to ravage the planet, a team of international scientists recently said the world must begin to prepare for the possibility of a “climate tipping point”.

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Too much optimism regarding our future?

One such scientist, Luke Kemp, from Cambridge’s Center for the Study of Existential Risk, said: “Right now I think we’re naïve. We’re not looking at worst-case scenarios at all. “.

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Famines and conflict over resources

The report by Kemp and his colleagues warns of the risk of climate-induced increases in infectious diseases, as well as the risks of famine, extreme weather disasters and conflict over resources.

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An increase in climate disasters

The number of weather disasters that have hit the world has increased fivefold over the past 50 years. However, the number of deaths from natural disasters has fallen sharply, thanks to improved early warning and disaster management, according to the “World Meteorological Organization”.

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Heatwave-related deaths are on the rise

While cold-related deaths are down, heat-related ones are up. Indeed, the “Lancet Planetary Health” published a study in 2021 which showed that more than 5 million people die each year in the world due to excessive heat or cold.

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