Kim Heung-gyu, a professor at Ajou University and director of the US-China Policy Research Institute, said, “We need to ask the question of how much China can cost us.” By Woo Cheol-hoon, senior staff reporter photowoo@kyunghyang.com
Unstable Korea-China Relations
In case of failure to manage the situation, the immediate
Strategic competition between the US and China
Avoid taking advantage of conflict
In the 30 years since 1992, when Korea and China established diplomatic ties, which were aimed at guns in the Korean War, the two countries have achieved rapid development of relations. South Korea-China relations, which faced several important inflection points, are now at a new turning point.
Kim Heung-gyu, a professor at Ajou University and director of the US-China Policy Research Institute, said in an interview with the Kyunghyang Shinmun at a hotel in Jung-gu, Seoul on the 19th, “The past 30 years have been a blessing, but the next 30 years can cost a lot of money. We have to ask cognitive questions.” The following is a Q&A with Director Kim.
– Considering the situation at the time 30 years ago, what does the establishment of diplomatic relations between Korea and China mean from the perspective of Korea?
“At that time, South Korea wanted to break through the limited situation of dealing with North Korea by relying solely on the ROK-US alliance without having a diplomatic and security perspective beyond the Korean Peninsula amid the severe Cold War system and inter-Korean confrontation. In the process of the collapse of the socialist state, a space of opportunity opened up, and President Roh Tae-woo made good use of that space through the Northern Policy. Following the establishment of diplomatic ties with the former Soviet Union (September 1990), China and China continued to establish diplomatic ties and expanded contacts with socialist countries, allowing more options for foreign and security policy toward North Korea to be secured. In the economic aspect, we had to find a new momentum in the process of reorganizing the international economic order, which was transformed into a market economy following the collapse of the socialist system, but the market called China opened up.”
THAAD’s biggest defeat since diplomatic establishment
like the Taiwan issue.
It is a matter of communication between the US and China.
Best not to make it an issue
– If you were to pick an event that symbolized the change in Korea-China relations following the establishment of diplomatic ties.
“Relationships between the two countries have undergone several changes, the first of which was in February 1997 when Hwang Jang-yop, secretary of the Workers’ Party of Korea, defected through the South Korean embassy in Beijing, China. This was a very symbolic event that China would place more importance on relations with South Korea than with consideration for North Korea. The second is the financial crisis that originated in the United States in 2008. After the financial crisis, China actively switched to a competitive system with the United States, and following that, we will face an important turning point in Korea-China relations called the High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system. done. Third, the current strategic competition between the United States and China is intensifying. In the process of the weakening of the liberal hegemony of the United States and the transition to multipolarization, Korea-China relations have entered a new turning point. The extension of the ‘US-China strategic cooperative relationship’ that has linked stable cooperation between Korea and China is disappearing, and the rapid rise of China is transforming the former complementary division of labor into a competitive one.”
– If you express the current unstable Korea-China relations in terms of temperature.
“Just maintaining the current temperature is successful. However, if we fail to manage the warm situation, we are facing a time when we can be downgraded.”
– The biggest bad thing that can rapidly cool the temperature between Korea and China.
“This is a US-China conflict. If we take the lead in the conflict and act like the vanguard of the United States, China’s antipathy will be very strong. China risked all its fate and entered the U.S.-China strategic competition, but if we take the lead because we are geographically closest and have seen the most benefits from China in economic development, we may be the subject of anger.”
– In that sense, I think the biggest failure in Korea-China diplomacy following the establishment of diplomatic ties is the deployment of THAAD.
“If you look only at the Korea-China relationship, that is the case. President Xi Jinping did not receive a phone call from then-President Park Geun-hye right following North Korea’s fourth nuclear test in January 2016, amid high expectations that China might play a role in North Korea. South Korea, which had previously said that it had not considered THAAD, had neither heard nor considered it, rapidly changed its direction to deploying THAAD. It is a declaration that South Korea will be at the forefront of the U.S. policy of deterring China at the point where the U.S. and China transition to a strategic competitive relationship.”
– How can we bring the THAAD issue to our advantage?
“Actually, THAAD is not our sovereign decision. It was decided by the United States through the Korea-US alliance. It is advantageous not to make THAAD an issue.”
– In addition to THAAD, there are many other factors that might cause a rapid cooling in Korea-China relations, including the Taiwan issue.
“Like other issues, the Taiwan issue should not be raised by ourselves as a banner of strategic competition between the United States and China. The Taiwan issue is a matter for the United States and China to resolve, and we, together with other major middle powers, follow their stance a little bit behind in the strict sense of the word. all.”
With neighbors who don’t disappear
We need to think regarding the foundation for coexistence
Korea-US alliance-centered foreign policy map
need to ask fundamental questions
– Is it a crisis or an opportunity to have China as a ‘neighbor to which you cannot move’?
“The past 30 years have been a huge opportunity. China, which has the world’s largest market, achieved an average economic growth of 10%, and it was a blessing from God as it matched the stage of our economic development. However, in the next 30 years, China, which has grown in size and pride, and has become a threat, may cause great humiliation to us, or may inflict considerable costs. Whereas China used to ask the question ‘what can it do for us,’ now we have to ask the question how much can China cost us.”
– What is our diplomatic direction between the US-China strategic competition?
“We need to ask the fundamental question whether the foreign policy centered on the ROK-US alliance is right at the time of transition to multipolarization. For the next 30 years with China, we have to think regarding whether to go into hostile relations, whether to share profits through cooperation, or at least how to lay the groundwork for coexistence. No matter how much we hate it, China will not disappear. If Korea and China understand the demonic nature of international relations, there are parts of it that demons and demons can understand each other. Strategic communication and vision for win-win growth must be shared. In this process, you need to think regarding how to maintain the current warmth while managing the numerous variables that are approaching. It is important to leave space and room to change posture when new opportunities arise, and it is important to have diplomatic imagination. In the jungle of international politics where there are many demons, our diplomacy must have resilience and responsiveness to various variables.”
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