There are many amazing coincidences and similarities between the United States in 1900 and China in 2020. Careful analysis is not difficult to produce a picture of the future, which will help us establish a correct world view-China needs to stick to its own path.
“In 1900, the US industrial production reached the world’s first place, surpassing the combined output of major European countries, but the US did not have the commanding heights of science, military, and finance. Where was the scientific commanding height in 1900? In Germany. Where was the military commanding heights? The navy is in the UK and the army is in Germany. Where is the financial commanding heights? The goal of the commanding heights is not far away.”
The above is an analysis article by Professor Chen Ping, a researcher at Fudan University in 2016. He specifically mentioned that the figures of GDP and per capita GDP are not important. If you are serious, you will lose, and you will never get out of the so-called “middle-income trap” described by Western economists. The reason is this. At that time, many people deliberately convince the Chinese people that following working as a “world factory” for so long, they should upgrade their runways, make smarter money, pursue higher profits, and look around at what is better. From industrial capitalism to financial capitalism? The charm of the virtual economy lies in the fact that a significant increase in GDP can be achieved in a short period of time without sweating.
Everyone needs to know that the artificially high GDP of the financial and other service industries does not represent the real international competitiveness. In addition to many developing countries in recent years, the United Kingdom, more than 100 years ago, has handed over its world hegemony to America. Of course, this process is long and gradual. In the 1970s, the manufacturing industry that had grown up in the industrial revolution in the United Kingdom had all matured and withered away. The United Kingdom officially relied on international financial activities to maintain its economy, and the United States was the real world leader. At this time , From space missions to the semiconductor industry, the United States is ahead of the United Kingdom and its rival, the Soviet Union, and the US real economy is unparalleled in the world. However, it was also from this moment that the United States began to gradually get rid of the real economy, industrialization came to a halt, and manufacturing processes were relocated.
At this time, Japan, which emerged from the shadow of defeat in the war, inherited the stick of manufacturing development and achieved miraculous economic growth, but it was also a similar pattern. In the mid-1980s, Japan went from “establishing business” (manufacturing to stand up and work) Turning to “industry” (the service industry mainly refers to financial services), as a result, Japanese industry “hollowed out”, and financial capitalism brought not real prosperity but a bubble. After the bubble burst, Japan’s economy has declined to this day.
Let’s review the pace of progress in China: China’s industrial added value has grown over the past 70 years, from 12 billion yuan (RMB) in 1952 to 30.5 trillion yuan in 2018, an increase of more than 970 times at constant prices; World Bank figures In 2010, China’s manufacturing industry surpassed the United States and became the world’s largest manufacturing country. Since then, it has been number one in the world for many consecutive years. At present, China’s manufacturing industry accounts for one-third of the world’s total and is the engine driving global industrial growth.
China has a modern industrial system – 41 major industrial categories, 207 medium industrial categories, and 666 small industrial categories. It is the only country in the world that has all the industrial categories listed in the United Nations Industrial Classification – China has developed in several decades The country has gone through the process of industrialization for hundreds of years. At present, no country in the real economy can beat China, unless China changes the runway at this moment and pursues the virtual economy.
However, China does not have this change in conditions. The reason is that the United States and Western groups have “rescue” in a timely manner. They want to decouple China and ban all key technologies from exporting to China. In this case, China needs to be self-reliant and continue to industrialize. macro. It can really be said that China is currently No time to die, and it is better for the United States to be a step ahead!
