More than half of Americans say there is an invasion at the southern border, according to a new NPR/Ipsos pollpart of a broader decline in support for migrants in general.
Republicans are more likely to have negative views of migrants. But the survey found that they are not the only ones adopting increasingly extreme rhetoric on migration.
Migrant invasion rhetoric resonates with many Americans
The poll found that most Americans, including three-quarters of Republicans, say it is somewhat or completely true that the United States is “experiencing an invasion” on the southern border.
The US Border Patrol has apprehended migrants at the US-Mexico border more than 1.8 million times since October, setting an annual record for arrests with two months to go in the fiscal year.
Nearly half of those migrants were swiftly removed under the public health order known as Title 42 that has been in place since the start of the pandemic. But hundreds of thousands more were allowed to seek asylum and other protections in the United States.
Republican leaders increasingly frame the situation as an invasion. Migrant advocates say the word has a long history in white nationalist circles and warn such extreme rhetoric might spark more violence once morest migrants.
Still, the survey shows that the word invasion has been adopted by a wide range of Americans to describe what’s happening at the border.
“We’re not actually testing enough people to make it safe for the rest of the country,” Michael Cisternino, a Republican sympathizer from Nevada, said in a follow-up interview.
“We the people of the United States really have no control over who gets in, where they go or what they’re going to do when they get there, whether they’re criminals, whether they’re non-criminals,” he noted.
Studies have consistently shown that immigrants are less likely to commit crimes or be incarcerated than native-born Americans. In the NPR/Ipsos poll, a plurality of Republicans incorrectly answered that migrants are more likely to commit crimes.
Republicans were also more likely to back rhetoric that echoes the so-called “replacement theory,” the bogus conspiracy theory that Jews or elites are deliberately replacing white Americans with migrants and people of color.
More than a third of all respondents agree that “native Americans are being systematically replaced by migrants,” including more than half of Republicans. Nearly half of all Americans say “Democrats are working to open our borders to more migrants,” with more than 70% of Republicans agreeing.
The immigration issue is more urgent for Republicans
The issue of immigration is much more pressing for Republicans than it is for Democrats. Roughly a quarter of Republican respondents say migration is one of the “most concerning” issues facing the country, while just 4% of Democrats rank migration as a top concern.
“A lot of immigrants come here for safety, and a lot of them come here for a chance” at a better life, respondent Neel-Gopal Sharma, a Democratic supporter from North Carolina, said in a follow-up interview.
Sharma’s parents emigrated from India to Canada, where he was born, and then moved to the United States. Sharma thinks it’s becoming increasingly acceptable to blame migrants and other people who look different for the country’s problems.
“There is this type of xenophobic conversation that is being launched. So I’m not surprised by that,” he noted.
Misleading claims regarding migrants are gaining ground, particularly around fentanyl
The survey found that a large number of Americans, including a large majority of Republicans, blame migrants for a rise in fentanyl deaths, although there is no evidence directly linking them to the problem.
It’s true that fentanyl overdose deaths have increased in recent years, and that much of the United States’ supply of fentanyl is smuggled across the border, but experts say the vast majority of fentanyl and other drugs Illegal drugs are smuggled through official ports of entry, concealed in large trucks and passenger vehicles, while relatively small amounts are smuggled across the border between those ports by cartels.
Virtually none are smuggled by the migrants themselves, said Victor Manjarrez, Jr., a former Border Patrol sector chief who is now a professor at the University of Texas at El Paso.
“The probability that they are carrying some kind of illicit narcotic is probably close to zero,” Manjarrez said.
“The vast majority of that fentanyl goes through a port of entry,” he added.
Still, 6 in 10 Republicans in the survey incorrectly said that “most” of the fentanyl entering the United States is smuggled by migrants.
False, misleading or incomplete information statements
Similarly, more than half of Republicans say migrants are “more likely” to use public assistance benefits than the native population, even though many migrants are barred from using most federal benefit programs. Less than a quarter of Republicans correctly identified that statement as false.
“These false, misleading or incomplete information statements are definitely gaining more traction with Republicans,” said Mallory Newall, a vice president at Ipsos, which conducted the survey.
But partisanship is not the only factor.
“What we’re seeing here in our survey is that your willingness to believe these misleading or incomplete statements regarding migration depends not only on your party affiliation, but also where you get your news,” Newall said.
Republicans who get their news from Fox News and conservative outlets were more likely to believe false or misleading narratives, Newall says, and were also more likely to believe these claims were “completely true.”
That finding was especially strong when it comes to so-called “ghost flights.” Republicans accuse the Biden administration of organizing secret flights that transport migrants from the border to communities across the country. But migrant advocates point out that those flights are not secret or newand accuse Republican critics of instilling fear for political gain.
The survey asked if the United States is “secretly transporting unaccompanied migrant children across the country at night.” Among Republicans whose primary news source is Fox or the conservative media, regarding 8 in 10 said that statement was true, Newall said. However, Republicans who get their news elsewhere weren’t so sure; only 4 out of 10 answered true.
Support for migration falls and approval of a border wall increases
When NPR surveyed Americans on migration in 2018, three out of four respondents agreed that “immigrants are an important part of our American identity.”
Today that number has fallen drastically.
That’s not the only sign of eroding support for immigrants in the latest poll.
When asked four years ago, nearly two-thirds of those surveyed favored a path to legal status for so-called dreamers, undocumented immigrants who were brought to the country as children. Now that support has dwindled to a slim majority, fueled in large part by a sharp drop among Republicans and independents.
There has also been a modest but steady increase in support for a wall on the southern border, from 38% in favor four years ago to 46% now.
It’s not clear why those numbers have changed. Ipsos’ Mallory Newall suspects the explanation is tied to broader concerns regarding inflation and the economy.
“One thing we know is that during times of poor economic conditions, for example the 2009 recession, support for migration declines,” he said.
There is also a theory that support for migrants tends to drop when there is a perception of chaos on the southern border. And the spread of false and misleading claims might also be a factor.
The scope of false and misleading claims may be growing
The survey suggests that the scope of some false and misleading claims may be growing.
Four years ago, NPR asked if “immigrants are more likely to commit crimes or be incarcerated than the US-born population.” At the time, more than 60% of those surveyed correctly identified that statement as false. But when asked once more this year, only 49% got it right.
That wasn’t the only question on which Americans’ understanding of migration seemed to decline over the last four years.
In 2018, 6 in 10 respondents correctly said that the majority of undocumented migrants in the United States carry more than a decade in the country. This time, 43% answered correctly; nearly as many said they didn’t know.
“Historically there have been a lot of framing issues around migration that have sometimes intentionally distorted the facts,” said Sophia Jordan Wallace, a professor of political science at the University of Washington, who has studied false and misleading claims regarding migration.
Wallace noted that there is a long tradition in American politics of blaming migrants for real problems facing the country as a way to mobilize voters, regardless of whether there is any connection between those migrants and the problems they are accused of causing. cause.
Those misleading or false claims don’t always make it into the mainstream. But sometimes, Wallace says, they do.
“Once it’s out there, it’s hard to fix,” he said.
The NPR/Ipsos poll was conducted July 28-29, 2022, with a sample of 1,116 online adults. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points for all respondents.