US Stock Index Technical Forecast: Weekly Trade Levels
- SPX500 Support ~4100, 3906, 3734- Resistance 4352/68, 4545, 4677
- Nasdaq supports 12668, 12208, 11119-resistance 13165/225, 14261/576, 14861.
- Dow Bolster at 29794, 28323, 27583/919- Resistance 31392, 32272/375, 33271
Stocks fell as all three major US stock indices set to close for the fourth straight week. While the uptrend continues The rally is approaching a major technical resistance. This will determine whether the latest rise is a simple bearish recovery or the start of a larger trend reversal. The front line is heading towards the end of the week. DuThis is target and void. Key levels in the S&P 500 (SPX500), Nasdaq (NDX) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30) weekly technical charts. Check out my latest strategy webinar. For in-depth details of These technical stock settings and m .mineral.
S&P 500 Price Chart – SPX500 Weekly
Chart provided by Michael Boutrostechnical strategist; SPX500 on Tradingview
Technical trends:in the last month S&P500 weekly technical trends We noted that “The immediate focus is a breakthrough of the monthly range with the threat of a larger bearish recovery in the medium term.” The SPX500 has risen more than 17% from its lows, attempting to break through four future resistance levels. Week of May 2021 Highs/Los at 4179, see weekly close here.
The more important resistance zone is looking higher at 4352/68– Regions defined by 52-week moving average and 61.8% Fibonacci Yearly reversal Note that this threshold converges with the annual downtrend resistance. And a breakout/topping off is required to detect a breakout/mark a larger trend reversal. Look for weekly support starting near every month. open range low regarding ~4100 Ready to break/close back below 3906 It is necessary to mark the resumption of a broader downtrend.
Bottom line: S&P 500 Range Breakout Expanding Into Major Technical Resistance There is a high risk for price volatility/weakness from above forward. from a trading standpoint Instead, look to reduce the long exposure portion / increase the extended defensive stop to 4352/68 – look for more reaction in the price for advice if it is reached. my latest check S&P 500 Shortterm technical data To take a closer look at the short term SPX500 technical trade levels.
S&P 500 Trader Sentiment – SPX500 Price Chart
- summary of IG customer sentiment Shows that the S&P 500 net short traders- the ratio is -1.75 (36.31% of long traders) – basically a bullishreading
- long position isUp 4.13% from yesterday and down 1.11% from last week.
- short position is2.05% lower than yesterday and up 3.58% from last week.
- Usually we take the opposite view of crowd sentiment. And the fact that traders are short indicates that the $500 price may continue to rise, but traders have less net-shorts than yesterday, but more net-shorts from last week. feeling Perspective The combination of current position and recent changes gives us a bias in trading $500.
Nasdaq 100 Price Chart – NDX Weekly
Chart provided by Michael Boutrostechnical strategist; NDX on Tradingview
note: Nasdaq broke the initial resistance three weeks ago. With an impressive 22.8% rally from the lows, it is now examining the confluence of resistance at 13165/225– Regions defined by the June advance extension of 1.618% and a rebound of 38.2% of the decline in 2021. Note that the resistance of the fundamental trend line from the December highs also converge at this threshold and highlight further emphasized the technical significance by looking for the reaction here
A break above/close above reveals more advance to the 52-week moving average. 14261 Bolstered by the week-low March low / 61.8% retracement at 14420/576 – Both zones of interest for possible price volatility/exhaust above if the abbreviation is reached. Ssupport Resting with a low week closing 2021 at 12668 Ready to rest/close below 2021 as low as 12208 Bears need to be reinstated.
Bottom line: Nasdaq is testing massive resistance. And the focus is on weekly closings. from a trading standpoint Good zone to reduce long exposure / increase stop protection – losses should be limited to 12208 IF prices are heading higher during this period. my latest check Nasdaq short term technical trends To see closely the short-term NDX technical trade levels.
Dow Jones Industrial Average Price Chart – US30 Weekly
Chart provided by Michael Boutrostechnical strategist; US30 on Tradingview
note: The Dow Jones is up more than 13.4% from its lows with a breakout approaching a technical crisis. resistance just higher at 33754-34164 – Regions defined by pre-expansion 1.618% of June, lowest in November, off-week high of April. and a correction of 61.8% of the year 2022 range. Risk for price volatility/fatigue from above IF to
Initial weekly support is now at its lowest level in February. 32272 sponsored by 31392 (bullish void) A breach above/close above this key zone essentially breaks the technical picture, essentially the situation reveals its April highs at 35492 Supported by the closing of the New Year’s Eve 36231.
Bottom line: The Dow is approaching the confluence of a major technical resistance – the risk of price fluctuations/weakness from above. from a trading standpoint Look for a longer exposure reduction / increase stop protection when extended to 33754-34164 if reached – losses should be limited to 31392 to maintain upward bias in the weeks ahead. I will publish an update Dow Jones short-term technical trend As we get more clarity on the short term NDX technical trade levels.
For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, please read his. Fundamentals of the Technical Analysis Series on Bare using a Duguess Splot
Use weekly technical settings.
– Written by Michael BoutrosStrategy Expert with DailyFX
follow Michael on twitter @MBForex
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