Washington (awp/afp) – Consumer confidence picked up more than expected in August in the United States, due to the outlook for an improvement on the inflation front, which is providing relief to low- and middle-income households, according to the preliminary estimate released Friday by the University of Michigan.
The index stood at 55.1 points, up 7% from July, and higher than the 52.1 points expected by a consensus of analysts.
This index had reached its all-time low in June.
This increase is due to the improving outlook, while the perception of current conditions is deteriorating. the indices measuring them stand respectively at 54.9 points (+16.1%) and 55.5 points (-4.5%).
“All components of the expectations index have improved this month, particularly among low- and middle-income consumers for whom inflation is particularly important,” said survey director Joanne Hsu, quoted in a statement.
She stresses that “the economic outlook for the coming year has increased considerably”.
“At the same time, high-income consumers, who generate a disproportionate share of spending, have seen sharp declines in their current personal finances as well as the conditions for purchasing durable goods,” said the economist.
Inflation, which in July reached a record level for more than 40 years, slowed in August to 8.5% over one year, raising hopes that the trend will continue.
“Lower (petrol) prices at the pump, combined with the possible spike in annual inflation, should allow confidence to gradually recover in the coming months,” said Mahir Rasheed, an economist for Oxford Economics, in a statement.
However, he believes that this confidence “is likely to remain fragile until the end of the year”, due to “uncertainty related to price pressures and the economy in general, which remains elevated in the short term, in plus some (expected) slowdown in the labor market”.
The measures taken by the US central bank (Fed) to curb inflation will have the effect of slowing economic growth and the job market.
However, it remains very dynamic, and in July returned to its pre-pandemic level, in terms of jobs created, and the unemployment rate, which fell to 3.5%.
afp/rp
