Impossible to predict. Oil markets are volatile and react to the slightest geopolitical event or economic upheaval.
The evolution of prices in the coming weeks will depend in particular on the evolution of the war in Ukraine and relations between Russia and the West regarding gas and oil supplies: will Russia still supply us? To what extent will Europe boycott Russian energies? This is the unknown and it will be decisive for prices.
Another great unknown, relations between Iran and the United States. If they sign a nuclear agreement, there will be a return of Iranian crude oil to the markets, enough to lower prices a little further.
In this context of uncertainty, the oil companies anticipated as best they might. “European sanctions once morest Russia and the boycott of gas and oil have been announced for a long time, tempers Olivier Neirynck. The oil companies have therefore sought and found alternatives to Russia: in Norway, the United Arab Emirates, perhaps in Iran… increase its production quotas to make up for this lack of Russian oile”. Measures have therefore been taken to guarantee supplies, but global instability remains.
A resumption of the covid epidemic might further slow the economy and therefore reduce the demand for oil and therefore lower prices. Conversely, renewed tension in Ukraine and therefore new fears regarding supplies might push them up once more. This is the immutable principle of supply and demand, which always applies to oil markets.
