Cut off eight points of dialogue and cooperation with the U.S. and cancel calls from theater commanders, etc.
Suspension of climate negotiations, an international issue with which we were cooperating… Prospects for North Korea’s nuclear cooperation are even more uncertain
The fact that China cut off eight points of dialogue and cooperation between the US and China on the 5th in response to US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan on the 5th shows the firm intention of taking bilateral relations and international issues as ‘hostages’ as far as the Taiwan issue is concerned. It is evaluated as being revealed.
China’s foreign ministry has defined the cut off of the US channel as a “counterattack measure” once morest Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan.
China has canceled the wartime commander’s call, the Ministry of Defense working-level meeting, and the maritime military and security council meeting, and temporarily suspends cooperation on the repatriation of illegal immigrants between the United States and China, cooperation in criminal justice, cooperation in combating multinational crimes, cooperation in combating drugs, and negotiations on climate change. days announced.
At a time when tensions between the two countries are escalating, the minimum ‘safety device’ to prevent clashes has been temporarily lifted.
◇ When military communication channels are cut off, it becomes difficult to manage US-China maritime conflicts
Among the channels that China has cut off, the consultation channels for managing military conflicts between the United States and China, such as telephone calls from theater commanders, working-level defense talks, and maritime military and security consultative bodies, attract the most attention.
This is because China has launched high-intensity armed demonstrations equivalent to the Taiwan Unification War exercise from the 4th, and the wave height of the Taiwan Strait has increased.
Regarding this, Professor Il-hyeon Moon of China’s Political Science University explained to Yonhap News on the 6th, “China conducted military exercises to encircle Taiwan, saying, ‘The United States has crossed the Maginot Line (Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan), so we will also cross it’.”
“Even if the US tries to deliver a warning message regarding China’s military actions in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait in the future, it is read as a message that it will not listen to it,” he said.
Severing the military channel can make it difficult to operate the ‘guard rail’ that the US has raised to prevent the US-China conflict from escalating into a military conflict.
This means that when conflicts escalate between the two sides in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea, it may become more difficult to put the brakes on the situation so that it does not worsen.
◇Chinese boycott in the field of climate change, which Biden elaborated on
China’s decision to temporarily suspend multinational crime-fighting cooperation, drug-fighting cooperation, and climate change negotiations can be read as a warning message to the United States.
China has strongly signaled that it will not cooperate on international issues that the United States attaches great importance to if it approaches its core interests, such as the Taiwan issue, which it is sensitive to.
In particular, climate change is an area in which the United States and China have been seeking cooperation through meetings between the two climate envoys, John Kerry and Sheejeon, on an irregular basis in the midst of fierce strategic competition between the United States and China.
In recent years, China has responded to the US’s request that ‘even if there is competition, let’s cooperate in areas where large powers can cooperate in international affairs’, ‘if you want cooperation, change your attitude toward China’.
In the midst of this, one area in which China has been relatively active in cooperation with the United States is climate change.
In November last year, during the 26th United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP26) held in Glasgow, England, the US-China Glasgow Joint Declaration on Reinforcing Climate Response in the 2020s was announced.
From China’s point of view, this cut off the dialogue channel may have taken into consideration the aspect of making it difficult domestically for the Joe Biden administration, which places great importance on climate change.
Discussing climate change without the cooperation of China, the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases, would be empty, so it may be that China chose the field that might hurt President Biden the most, ahead of the November midterm elections.
China’s willingness to pressure the US even at the risk of being criticized for being irresponsible as a major country can be read.
◇ ‘Spark’ in cooperation to resolve North Korea’s nuclear program
The impact of the US-China channel suspension on the US-China discussion over the North Korean nuclear issue is also of interest.
China did not directly mention the North Korean nuclear issue and negotiations on the return of the Iranian nuclear deal as a target of suspending its channels with the US.
This can be ambivalently interpreted.
The fact that these nuclear issues have not been specified can be interpreted as meaning that the possibility of dialogue with the United States remains open on this issue.
At the same time, if China chooses the climate issue as its first target under the strategy of suspending dialogue with the United States on all international issues for the time being, it might adversely affect U.S.-China cooperation over the North Korean nuclear issue.
Even if North Korea carries out its seventh nuclear test, there are concerns that it may be difficult for the US and China to cooperate in response to North Korea, and that such a prospect itself may encourage North Korea.
China has already warned of the adverse impact on the North Korean nuclear issue when the AUKUS (US-UK-Australia Security Alliance), which focuses on supporting the construction of nuclear-powered submarines in Australia, was launched last year. It has set an angle with the U.S. in sanctions discussions.
/yunhap news
