HSIAt 20,000 points, it should be good in theory, because the US 2-year bond rate is inverted compared to the 10-year bond rate, indicating that the economy is poor, and the market is waiting for interest rate cuts. This factor is more important than the fundamentals of the stock. If the inflation data is combined with the decline, it will be a perfect script. We will see if it can be realized this time.
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In addition to looking at interest rates in Hong Kong, another factor is the Taiwan Strait. On the surface, when Pelosi left, China began military exercises, and the event would end if the troops were withdrawn following the exercise. However, from a political perspective, a China can only have one legal regime. On the surface, Taiwan does not have Taiwan independence, but now everyone thinks that Taiwan is an independent regime. This year, because the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China is held, there may not be much action, but it is related to the orthodoxy of the regime. If we start to set a general direction next year, the possibility of serious conflict within 5 years will be much higher than before.
It is difficult to maintain the former glory
Don’t think that the actual damage is to hit Ukraine and turn into ruins. Just as Russia is sanctioned, the economy will be affected, but Russia’s economy has declined as early as the war preparation stage, that is, in the first few years of the war, and domestic control has also become stricter, so it can be seen that in the next few years, social, economic, international Relationships will change. Hong Kong’s position at this time is to maintain its previous position, as an international financial center, or to have a new position, which is a more important factor than interest and economic cycle. An export-oriented economic system loses the ability to connect with the outside world, and its positioning will be unbalanced, making it difficult to maintain its former glory. Therefore, in the next few years, risk management will be the top priority, and everyone may encounter unprecedented events.
Lu Zhiwei
This column is published every Friday
