There are always two sides to everything, depending on how you look at it.
US House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan, and the mainland did not send fighter jets to force the surrender, temporarily avoiding a direct military conflict between China and the United States. The public responded to the polarities. Some people thought that they were lucky to avoid war, at least China and the United States would not go to war, and the crisis was downgraded. Some people also believe that the mainland may be encouraged to visit Taiwan in the future due to heavy thunder and little rain.
I think the Taiwan independence faction is the biggest loser in the event. Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan has unilaterally changed the status quo across the Taiwan Strait and promoted the mainland’s comprehensive deployment of the process of reunifying Taiwan.
A lot of things should be done, but the country has to deal with a lot of things. If some negative events are pushed, they will be pushed to the highest agenda and become a concrete action plan. This is how the reunification of Taiwan is.
Let’s take a look at the mainland’s initial response to Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan:
1. Military pressure. The first is that following Pelosi’s special plane entered Taiwan’s airspace at 22:11 on the evening of August 2, the Air Force Su-35 was crossing the Taiwan Strait at 22:20. It means that you, the United States, change the status quo in Taiwan first, and I will erase the so-called “central line in the Taiwan Strait” at once.
Secondly, the Eastern Theater announced that starting from the evening of August 2, a series of joint military operations will be carried out around Taiwan Island.
The third and more powerful move is to announce that the People’s Liberation Army will conduct important military exercises in the six waters and airspaces of the Taiwan Strait from August 4 to 7 (following Pelosi’s departure). The navigation routes of important ports and military ports such as Suao Port, Kaohsiung Port, and Hualien Port were surrounded, forming a “quasi-blockade” of Taiwan’s sea and airspace for three days. Compared with the 1996 mainland military exercise that was mainly aimed at the Taiwan Strait, this time an encirclement was formed, and the situation was much more serious.
2. Economic and trade sanctions. The Ministry of Commerce announced to suspend the export of natural sand to Taiwan. Taiwan’s construction sand and stone mainly rely on the mainland, and it is difficult to find alternative sources for a while. In addition, the mainland has suspended the import of 2,066 Taiwan-made food products from more than 100 merchants, including some well-known brands. Politicians in Taiwan are playing with fire, which has affected the food, fishing and agricultural sectors.
3. Diplomatic protest. China protests once morest the United States. Even if the United States released the news that US President Biden also opposed Pelosi’s visit to China, it was only because Biden was diagnosed once more and failed to dissuade Pelosi. But China does not accept these remarks. In the middle of the night of August 2, Vice Foreign Minister Xie Feng was ordered to urgently summon Burns, the US ambassador to China, to lodge solemn representations and strong protests to the US on behalf of the Chinese government.
Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan is expected to trigger a series of events:
1. This time, the country’s response is to avoid immediate military conflict with the United States. It is estimated that the country believes that the time has not come yet, but it must also actively prepare for possible future conflicts.
2. You can’t blame me for doing the 15th when you are the first year of the new year. Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan will not only not expand Taiwan’s international activity space, it will also narrow her activity space. Taiwan currently has 14 so-called “diplomatic countries”. It is said that many of them have long wanted to establish diplomatic relations with the mainland, but the mainland does not want to do too much and slows down the process. In the future, I believe that Taiwan’s “diplomatic countries” will fall like dominoes. .
Third, Taiwan’s economic and trade space will also be narrowed, and it will be difficult for mainland tourists to travel to Taiwan following the epidemic.
Fourth, the forced test begins. There are three possibilities for Taiwan in the future: non-reunification, military reunification, and forced reunification. The six-region military exercise encircling Taiwan from August 4th to 7th is an experiment to impose a sea and air blockade on Taiwan. This is an exercise. If it is not surrounded for three days, what if it is three months, or three years? If it is blocked for a long time, Taiwan will become a besieged city, and will the United States declare war on the mainland?
5. The possibility of a Uniform Law. The National People’s Congress has formulated the “Anti-Secession Law” and “Anti-Sanctions Law”, and there were voices regarding formulating a “Uniform Law” before. It seems that the time has come.
Towards 2035 and 2049, which are two major time points, the reunification of Taiwan has already been placed on the agenda of national leaders. But the Pelosi incident will push this decision to a higher priority and make actions to speed up the unification process more reasonable. This is Pelosi’s historical “contribution”. Just as the gang violence in Hong Kong in 2019 gave birth to the “Hong Kong National Security Law” and perfected the political system. Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan will also promote cross-strait reunification. History is so paradoxical that it doesn’t necessarily follow a straight line.
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Lu Yongxiong
