But with which trading partners? As a reminder, there is only a small market share that is not dominated by China. So without China, the energy transition will be stopped very quickly. And: Not only Germany is planning the trend reversal in energy – China itself would also like to build extensively on solar energy.
In addition, other countries and the USA also want to invest in green energy. “There might be massive supply bottlenecks here,” warns institute director Andreas Bett.
For him, there is only one possible conclusion: “We have a very high technological dependence on China, so European photovoltaic production should definitely be started now,” the expert demands.
The knowledge is still in Germany
As early as the early 2000s, Germany had a flourishing solar industry with companies such as Q-Cells and Solarworld. But when the government subsidies disappeared, the industry also increasingly disappeared. Once once more, it was Chinese companies that filled the gap in the market. Germany has long since relinquished its former pioneering role to the Asian country.
Both Bett and Bardt emphasize that the know-how is still in Germany. “The devices that the Chinese use to produce come from German machine builders,” says Bardt, for example.
Bett even believes that Germany will soon be able to regain an important position on the world market in the industry. “The research environment in Germany is still excellent. At Fraunhofer ISE we still hold some world records for solar cells. The technology is ready for transfer,” says Bett.
China adopts new innovations quickly – and cheaply
Bardt, on the other hand, is more critical. “For a boom, we would first need an innovation breakthrough.” And even if it came: “As soon as the technology was standard once more, other countries would imitate it on more favorable terms.”
The German machine builders in particular are familiar with these worries. In the past, Chinese companies have already gained access to European know-how in many sectors, for example through forced joint ventures, in order to copy it.
Independent production in Germany, on the other hand, is associated with high costs. Not only would the customers feel that, Bardt suspects that the expansion might also progress more slowly.
Conflict with China might threaten prosperity
Germany is thus faced with the same dilemma as it once was with Russia: growing dependency on a partner is cheap and opportune – but the cost of the risk that is taken is impossible to quantify in advance.